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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UkraineUkraine Interest Rate Decision climbed to 15.5% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Ukraine Interest Rate Decision climbed to 15.5% in July 2026, up 0.5% from June's 15.0% reading. The reading matched the 15.0% consensus. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
15.5
Actual
15
Consensus
15
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 15
Actual: 15.5
Error: -0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Ukraine) was reported at 15.5% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 15%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.29%, ranging from 15% to 15.5% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 15.17%, down from the prior three at 15.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.09%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 14.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.31%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - UA
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About Interest Rate Decision — Ukraine
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 15.5 %, consensus 15 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 15 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 15 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.75) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UA | Interest Rate Decision | 15.5 | 15 | 15 | 15.25 | Low |