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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UgandaUganda GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 8.5% in October 2025
FMPQuarterlyReleased March 2026
Uganda GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 8.5% in October 2025, released March 2026, up 3.7% from September's 4.8% reading. The print exceeded the 5.3% consensus by 3.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 6.31%.
Latest Release
8.5
Actual
5.3
Consensus
4.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.15 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 5.3
Actual: 8.5
Error: -3.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Uganda) was reported at 8.5% in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.3% by 3.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.27%, down from the prior three at 6.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.15%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - UG
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Uganda
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 8.5 %, consensus 5.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 4.8 %. Before that (Apr 2025): 5.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.