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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UgandaUganda GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 6.8% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Uganda GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 6.8% in April 2026, released October 2026, up 1.0% from March's 5.8% reading. The reading matched the 6.5% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.3%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
6.8
Actual
6.5
Consensus
5.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 6.5
Actual: 6.8
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Uganda) was reported at 6.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 6.5% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.7%, up from the prior three at 6.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - UG
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Uganda
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 6.8 %, consensus 6.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 8.5 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 4.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UG Events
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | UG | Balance of Trade | -1143.7 | -280 | -280.00 | Low | |
| 09:30 | UG | Business Confidence | 55.8 | 57 | 57.00 | Low | |