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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Balance of Trade climbed to -1.04B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Balance of Trade climbed to -1.04B in May 2026, released July 2026, up 6.01B from April's -7.05B reading. The print exceeded the -3.9B consensus by 2.86B. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -9.05B, vs -0.38B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.044
Actual
-3.9
Consensus
-7.053
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.15 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -6.55
Actual: -1.04
Error: -5.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (United Kingdom) was reported at -1.04 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.90 billion by 2.86 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -7.05 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.11 billion, ranging from -9.66 billion to 3.92 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.38 billion, down from the prior three at -2.18 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.56 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.91 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -3.88 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.15 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - UK
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About Balance of Trade — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -1.044 B, consensus -3.9 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -8.435 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -9.658 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |