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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BBA Mortgage Rate held to 6.58% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Rate held to 6.58% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched the 6.6% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.2%. Over the past 3 months, BBA Mortgage Rate averaged 6.59%, vs 6.6% in the prior 3-month window. BBA Mortgage Rate is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
6.58
Actual
6.6
Consensus
6.58
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 6.6
Actual: 6.58
Error: +0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.91 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BBA Mortgage Rate (United Kingdom) was reported at 6.58% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.6% by 0.02%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.64%, ranging from 6.58% to 6.81% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.59%, down from the prior three at 6.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.08%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.28%). In October readings over the past 3 years, BBA Mortgage Rate has averaged 7.02%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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BBA Mortgage Rate - UK
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About BBA Mortgage Rate — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The BBA Mortgage Rate is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the average interest rate for mortgages in the United Kingdom. This rate is based on data collected from leading banks and building societies, providing valuable insight into the current state of the housing market. It is often used by investors, economists, and policymakers to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions regarding mortgage lending and borrowing. The BBA Mortgage Rate is a reliable and important tool for monitoring trends and forecasting future developments in the UK housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 6.58 %, consensus 6.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6.58 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 6.58 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.91) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |