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Data from Bank of England. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Cut held to 9 in July 2026
Bank of EnglandMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Cut held to 9 in July 2026. The reading matched the 9 consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 37.75. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
9
Actual
9
Consensus
9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 9
Actual: 9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.91 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoE MPC Vote Cut (United Kingdom) was reported at 9.00 in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 9.00 exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 19.83, ranging from 4.00 to 59.00 across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 9.00, down from the prior three at 30.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 19.24) is lower than the prior year (σ 29.13).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Aug 18) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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BoE MPC Vote Cut - UK
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About BoE MPC Vote Cut — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The BoE MPC Vote Cut is a key financial indicator that measures the decision of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to lower interest rates. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the UK economy and the central bank's stance on monetary policy. A higher number of votes in favor of a rate cut indicates a more dovish outlook, while a lower number suggests a more hawkish approach. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can have a significant impact on the financial markets and the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 9, consensus 9. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 9. Before that (Apr 2026): 9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.91) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -4 | 5 | -32.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 147 | 200 | 220.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.3 | 4 | 4.15 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.85 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 6.7 | 5.2 | 4.80 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | Labour Productivity QoQ | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.10 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.3 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.80 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 7.3 | 7 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -2 | -0.5 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium | |