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Data from Bank of England. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Cut held to 9 in September 2026
Bank of EnglandMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Cut held to 9 in September 2026. The reading matched the 9 consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 35.25. BoE MPC Vote Cut is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
9
Actual
9
Consensus
9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 9
Actual: 9
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoE MPC Vote Cut (United Kingdom) was reported at 9.00 in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 9.00 exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.50, ranging from 4.00 to 59.00 across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 9.00, down from the prior three at 24.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 19.09) is lower than the prior year (σ 27.73). In September readings over the past 3 years, BoE MPC Vote Cut has averaged 19.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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BoE MPC Vote Cut - UK
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About BoE MPC Vote Cut — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The BoE MPC Vote Cut is a key financial indicator that measures the decision of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to lower interest rates. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the UK economy and the central bank's stance on monetary policy. A higher number of votes in favor of a rate cut indicates a more dovish outlook, while a lower number suggests a more hawkish approach. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can have a significant impact on the financial markets and the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 9, consensus 9. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 9. Before that (Jun 2026): 9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.77) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |