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Data from Bank of England. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Hike climbed to 39 in July 2026
Bank of EnglandMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Hike climbed to 39 in July 2026, up 10 from June's 29 reading. The print exceeded the 29 consensus by 10. BoE MPC Vote Hike has now risen for 5 consecutive months. BoE MPC Vote Hike is now the highest in 33 months.
Latest Release
39
Actual
29
Consensus
29
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 29
Actual: 39
Error: -10
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoE MPC Vote Hike (United Kingdom) was reported at 39.00 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 29.00 by 10.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 29.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.83, ranging from 0.00 to 39.00 across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 25.67, up from the prior three at 6.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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BoE MPC Vote Hike - UK
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About BoE MPC Vote Hike — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
BoE MPC Vote Hike is a financial indicator that measures the number of votes in favor of raising interest rates by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). This indicator provides insight into the current sentiment and potential future actions of the central bank, which can have a significant impact on the economy and financial markets. A higher number of votes for a rate hike indicates a more hawkish stance and potential tightening of monetary policy, while a lower number suggests a more dovish approach. Traders and investors closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about their investments and to anticipate potential changes in the interest rate environment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 39, consensus 29. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 29. Before that (Apr 2026): 19.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.73) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 8.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 70.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 5.00 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |