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Data from Bank of England. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Hike held to 39 in September 2026
Bank of EnglandMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Hike held to 39 in September 2026. The reading matched the 39 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 13.25. BoE MPC Vote Hike is now the highest in 34 months.
Latest Release
39
Actual
39
Consensus
39
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 44
Actual: 39
Error: +5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoE MPC Vote Hike (United Kingdom) was reported at 39.00 in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 39.00 exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 20.83, ranging from 0.00 to 39.00 across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 35.67, up from the prior three at 6.00. In September readings over the past 3 years, BoE MPC Vote Hike has averaged 19.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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BoE MPC Vote Hike - UK
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About BoE MPC Vote Hike — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
BoE MPC Vote Hike is a financial indicator that measures the number of votes in favor of raising interest rates by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). This indicator provides insight into the current sentiment and potential future actions of the central bank, which can have a significant impact on the economy and financial markets. A higher number of votes for a rate hike indicates a more hawkish stance and potential tightening of monetary policy, while a lower number suggests a more dovish approach. Traders and investors closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about their investments and to anticipate potential changes in the interest rate environment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 39, consensus 39. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 39. Before that (Jun 2026): 29.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |