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Data from Bank of England. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Unchanged fell to 69.0 in July 2026
Bank of EnglandMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Unchanged fell to 69.0 in July 2026, down 10.0 from June's 79.0 reading. The reading missed the 79.0 consensus by 10.0. BoE MPC Vote Unchanged has now declined for 4 consecutive months. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
69
Actual
79
Consensus
79
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 79
Actual: 69
Error: +10
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (United Kingdom) was reported at 69.00 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 79.00 by 10.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 79.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 63.33, ranging from 5.00 to 99.00 across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 82.33, up from the prior three at 44.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 30.01) is comparable than the prior year (σ 29.13).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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BoE MPC Vote Unchanged - UK
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About BoE MPC Vote Unchanged — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The BoE MPC Vote Unchanged is a financial indicator that measures the outcome of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote on interest rates. This indicator reflects the decision of the MPC to keep interest rates at the same level as the previous meeting, indicating stability in the economy and monetary policy. It is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it provides insight into the current state of the economy and potential future changes in interest rates.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 69, consensus 79. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 79. Before that (Apr 2026): 89.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 8.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 70.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 5.00 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |