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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index YoY climbed to 2.1% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index YoY climbed to 2.1% in October 2026, up 0.7% from September's 1.4% reading. The print exceeded the 1.6% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.13%. Over the past 3 months, BRC Shop Price Index YoY averaged 1.45%, vs 1.1% in the prior 3-month window. BRC Shop Price Index YoY is now the highest in 157 months.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
1.6
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.73
Actual: 2.1
Error: -0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
BRC Shop Price Index YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.1% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.6% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.22%, ranging from 0.6% to 2.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.67%, up from the prior three at 1.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.42%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.71%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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BRC Shop Price Index YoY - UK
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About BRC Shop Price Index YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The BRC Shop Price Index YoY is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the prices of goods sold by retailers in the United Kingdom. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary trends in the retail sector, making it a key tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to monitor and analyze the state of the economy. With its comprehensive coverage of various retail categories, the BRC Shop Price Index YoY is a reliable and timely indicator for assessing the impact of price changes on consumer spending and the overall health of the retail industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |