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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Business Investment QoQ fell to 1.8% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Business Investment QoQ fell to 1.8% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, down 1.2% from March's 3.0% reading. The print exceeded the 1.7% consensus by 0.1%. Business Investment QoQ has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Business Investment QoQ is now the highest in 13 months.
Latest Release
1.8
Actual
1.7
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.95 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 1.8
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Investment QoQ (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.8% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.7% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.14%, ranging from -2.7% to 1.8% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.47%, up from the prior three at -1.5%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.7%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.26%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Business Investment QoQ has averaged 0.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.95%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Investment QoQ - UK
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About Business Investment QoQ — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Business Investment QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of money businesses are investing in their operations and assets from one quarter to the next. It provides valuable insights into the current state and future outlook of the economy, as well as the confidence and growth plans of businesses. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can impact stock prices, interest rates, and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.7 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |