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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Business Investment YoY fell to -1.8% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom Business Investment YoY fell to -1.8% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 3.6% from December's 1.8% reading. The reading missed the 2.8% consensus by 4.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.01%. Business Investment YoY is now the lowest in 54 months.
Latest Release
-1.8
Actual
2.8
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: -1.8
Error: +4.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.84 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Investment YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at -1.8% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 4.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.85%, ranging from -1.8% to 6.1% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.73%, down from the prior three at 2.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.29%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Business Investment YoY has averaged 1.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Investment YoY - UK
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About Business Investment YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Business Investment YoY, or Year-over-Year, is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of money businesses are investing in their operations compared to the previous year. This metric provides insight into the overall health and confidence of the business sector, as well as potential future economic growth. A positive YoY growth in business investment indicates a strong and growing economy, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact stock markets, interest rates, and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -1.8 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 2 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.84) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.