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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CBI Business Optimism Index fell to -65 in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
United Kingdom CBI Business Optimism Index fell to -65 in April 2026, down 46 from March's -19 reading. The reading missed the -23 consensus by 42. CBI Business Optimism Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. CBI Business Optimism Index is now the lowest in 70 months.
Latest Release
-65
Actual
-23
Consensus
-19
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: -29
Actual: -31
Error: +2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBI Business Optimism Index (United Kingdom) was reported at -65.00 in April 2026. This missed the market consensus of -23.00 by 42.00. The reading fell from the previous value of -19.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -30.33, down from the prior three at -26.67. In October readings over the past 3 years, CBI Business Optimism Index has averaged -23.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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CBI Business Optimism Index - UK
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About CBI Business Optimism Index — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The CBI Business Optimism Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and confidence of businesses in a particular economy. It provides valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions, as well as the potential growth and investment opportunities. This index is often used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions and assess the overall health of the business environment. With its comprehensive and reliable data, the CBI Business Optimism Index is a crucial tool for understanding the outlook of the business sector and its impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -65, consensus -23. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -31. Before that (Apr 2025): -33.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.