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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CBI Business Optimism Index climbed to -36 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom CBI Business Optimism Index climbed to -36 in July 2026, up 29 from June's -65 reading. The print exceeded the -40 consensus by 4. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -20.08.
Latest Release
-36
Actual
-40
Consensus
-65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -40
Actual: -36
Error: -4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBI Business Optimism Index (United Kingdom) was reported at -36.00 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -40.00 by 4.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -65.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -31.33, up from the prior three at -34.67. In July readings over the past 3 years, CBI Business Optimism Index has averaged -24.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CBI Business Optimism Index - UK
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About CBI Business Optimism Index — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The CBI Business Optimism Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and confidence of businesses in a particular economy. It provides valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions, as well as the potential growth and investment opportunities. This index is often used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions and assess the overall health of the business environment. With its comprehensive and reliable data, the CBI Business Optimism Index is a crucial tool for understanding the outlook of the business sector and its impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -36, consensus -40. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -65. Before that (Oct 2025): -31.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |