Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades fell to -48 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades fell to -48 in August 2026, down 22 from July's -26 reading. The reading missed the -24 consensus by 24. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -40.75. Over the past 3 months, CBI Distributive Trades averaged -40, vs -55.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 16th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-48
Actual
-24
Consensus
-26
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -22.5
Actual: -48
Error: +25.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBI Distributive Trades (United Kingdom) was reported at -48.00 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -24.00 by 24.00. The reading fell from the previous value of -26.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -39.67, ranging from -54.00 to -26.00 across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -42.67, up from the prior three at -47.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.53) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.15). In August readings over the past 3 years, CBI Distributive Trades has averaged -35.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
CBI Distributive Trades - UK
Loading chart data...
About CBI Distributive Trades — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CBI Distributive Trades is a financial indicator that measures the monthly sales volume of retailers and wholesalers in the United Kingdom. It is based on a survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and provides valuable insights into the current state of the UK's retail and wholesale sectors. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate the overall health of the UK economy and consumer spending trends. A higher CBI Distributive Trades reading is generally seen as positive for the economy, while a lower reading may suggest a slowdown in consumer activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -48 %, consensus -24 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -26 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -54 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |