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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades fell to -54 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades fell to -54 in June 2026, down 8 from May's -46 reading. The reading missed the -41 consensus by 13. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -37. Over the past 3 months, CBI Distributive Trades averaged -57, vs -47.5 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-54
Actual
-41
Consensus
-46
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -34
Actual: -54
Error: +20
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBI Distributive Trades (United Kingdom) was reported at -54.00 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -41.00 by 13.00. The reading fell from the previous value of -46.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -38.78, ranging from -54.00 to -27.00 across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -50.67, down from the prior three at -34.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.58) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.77). In June readings over the past 3 years, CBI Distributive Trades has averaged -41.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul 13) and Goods Trade Balance (Jul 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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CBI Distributive Trades - UK
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About CBI Distributive Trades — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CBI Distributive Trades is a financial indicator that measures the monthly sales volume of retailers and wholesalers in the United Kingdom. It is based on a survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and provides valuable insights into the current state of the UK's retail and wholesale sectors. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate the overall health of the UK economy and consumer spending trends. A higher CBI Distributive Trades reading is generally seen as positive for the economy, while a lower reading may suggest a slowdown in consumer activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -54 %, consensus -41 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -46 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -68 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 3.4 | 1.8 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -26.05 | -20.2 | -20.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -13.05 | -9.6 | -9.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -8.435 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |