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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades climbed to -26 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades climbed to -26 in July 2026, up 28 from June's -54 reading. The print exceeded the -45 consensus by 19. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -40.83. Over the past 3 months, CBI Distributive Trades averaged -50, vs -54.33 in the prior 3-month window. CBI Distributive Trades is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
-26
Actual
-45
Consensus
-54
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -44.75
Actual: -26
Error: -18.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBI Distributive Trades (United Kingdom) was reported at -26.00 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -45.00 by 19.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -54.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -37.89, ranging from -54.00 to -26.00 across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -42.00, up from the prior three at -42.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.32) is lower than the prior year (σ 13.93). In July readings over the past 3 years, CBI Distributive Trades has averaged -34.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CBI Distributive Trades - UK
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About CBI Distributive Trades — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CBI Distributive Trades is a financial indicator that measures the monthly sales volume of retailers and wholesalers in the United Kingdom. It is based on a survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and provides valuable insights into the current state of the UK's retail and wholesale sectors. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate the overall health of the UK economy and consumer spending trends. A higher CBI Distributive Trades reading is generally seen as positive for the economy, while a lower reading may suggest a slowdown in consumer activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -26 %, consensus -45 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -54 %. Before that (May 2026): -46 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.76) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |