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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades climbed to -46 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades climbed to -46 in May 2026, up 22 from April's -68 reading. The print exceeded the -60 consensus by 14. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -36.58. The reading is in the 14th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-46
Actual
-60
Consensus
-68
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -66
Actual: -46
Error: -20
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBI Distributive Trades (United Kingdom) was reported at -46.00 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -60.00 by 14.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -68.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -37.89, ranging from -52.00 to -27.00 across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -47.00, down from the prior three at -29.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.43) is lower than the prior year (σ 13.04). In May readings over the past 3 years, CBI Distributive Trades has averaged -21.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CBI Distributive Trades - UK
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About CBI Distributive Trades — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CBI Distributive Trades is a financial indicator that measures the monthly sales volume of retailers and wholesalers in the United Kingdom. It is based on a survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and provides valuable insights into the current state of the UK's retail and wholesale sectors. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate the overall health of the UK economy and consumer spending trends. A higher CBI Distributive Trades reading is generally seen as positive for the economy, while a lower reading may suggest a slowdown in consumer activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -46 %, consensus -60 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -68 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -52 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.