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United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders fell to -41 in May 2026, down 3 from April's -38 reading. The reading matched the -40 consensus. CBI Industrial Trends Orders has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CBI Industrial Trends Orders averaged -32.5, vs -30 in the prior 3-month window. CBI Industrial Trends Orders is now the lowest in 37 months.
across last 12 releases
May 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
CBI Industrial Trends Orders (United Kingdom) was reported at -41.00 in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -40.00 by 1.00. The reading fell from the previous value of -38.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -32.60, ranging from -41.00 to -27.00 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The trailing three releases averaged -32.00, up from the prior three at -35.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.59) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.26). In May readings over the past 3 years, CBI Industrial Trends Orders has averaged -34.67.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.88.
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
CBI Industrial Trends Orders is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of new orders received by manufacturers in the United Kingdom. It provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and can be used to gauge the overall strength of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can help inform decisions related to investment, production, and economic policies. With its timely and reliable data, CBI Industrial Trends Orders is an essential tool for understanding the current and future trends in the UK manufacturing industry.
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -41 %, consensus -40 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -38 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -27 %.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.78) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.40 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Input YoY | 7.7 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Output MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Retail Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Input MoM | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 06:00 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | ||
| 06:00 | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3 | 3.00 | High | ||
| 06:00 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | CPI YoY | 2.8 | 3 | 3.00 | High | ||
| 08:30 | House Price Index YoY | 0 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low | ||
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | Employment Change | 148 | 80 | 124.00 | Medium | ||
| 06:00 | Claimant Count Change | 26.5 | 25.8 | 25.25 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.20 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | HMRC Payrolls Change | -100 | -80 | -80.00 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Unemployment Rate | 5 | 5 | 4.95 | High | ||
| 06:00 | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | ||
| 11:00 | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | ||
| 11:00 | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 19 | 29 | 29.00 | Medium | ||
| 11:00 | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 89 | 79 | 79.00 | Medium | ||
| 11:00 | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | ||
| 11:00 | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | ||