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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders fell to -32 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders fell to -32 in October 2026, down 23 from September's -9 reading. The reading missed the -20 consensus by 12. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 6. Over the past 3 months, CBI Industrial Trends Orders averaged -17, vs -43.67 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-32
Actual
-20
Consensus
-9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.38
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -10
Actual: -32
Error: +22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBI Industrial Trends Orders (United Kingdom) was reported at -32.00 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -20.00 by 12.00. The reading fell from the previous value of -9.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -32.10, ranging from -45.00 to -9.00 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -22.00, up from the prior three at -43.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.31) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.36). In October readings over the past 3 years, CBI Industrial Trends Orders has averaged -32.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.38.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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CBI Industrial Trends Orders - UK
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About CBI Industrial Trends Orders — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CBI Industrial Trends Orders is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of new orders received by manufacturers in the United Kingdom. It provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and can be used to gauge the overall strength of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can help inform decisions related to investment, production, and economic policies. With its timely and reliable data, CBI Industrial Trends Orders is an essential tool for understanding the current and future trends in the UK manufacturing industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -32 %, consensus -20 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -9 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.46) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |