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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders held to -45 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Orders held to -45 in July 2026. The reading missed the -40 consensus by 5. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -34.08. Over the past 3 months, CBI Industrial Trends Orders averaged -43, vs -31 in the prior 3-month window. CBI Industrial Trends Orders is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-45
Actual
-40
Consensus
-45
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -42.75
Actual: -45
Error: +2.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBI Industrial Trends Orders (United Kingdom) was reported at -45.00 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -40.00 by 5.00. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -35.30, ranging from -45.00 to -27.00 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -43.67, down from the prior three at -29.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.62) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.48). In July readings over the past 3 years, CBI Industrial Trends Orders has averaged -35.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CBI Industrial Trends Orders - UK
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About CBI Industrial Trends Orders — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
CBI Industrial Trends Orders is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of new orders received by manufacturers in the United Kingdom. It provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and can be used to gauge the overall strength of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can help inform decisions related to investment, production, and economic policies. With its timely and reliable data, CBI Industrial Trends Orders is an essential tool for understanding the current and future trends in the UK manufacturing industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -45 %, consensus -40 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -45 %. Before that (May 2026): -41 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.74) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |