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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Claimant Count Change fell to -11K in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Claimant Count Change fell to -11K in July 2026, released August 2026, down 4.6K from June's -6.4K reading. The reading missed the 11.2K consensus by 22.2K. Claimant Count Change has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Claimant Count Change averaged 18.95K, vs 26K in the prior 3-month window. Claimant Count Change is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-11
Actual
11.2
Consensus
-6.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.8 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 6.87
Actual: -11
Error: +17.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Claimant Count Change (United Kingdom) was reported at -11 thousand in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 11 thousand by 22 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of -6 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 20 thousand, ranging from -11 thousand to 31 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 9 thousand, down from the prior three at 27 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 12 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 15 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Claimant Count Change has averaged 39 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Aug 19) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Claimant Count Change - UK
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About Claimant Count Change — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Claimant Count Change is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in the number of people who are claiming unemployment benefits in a particular country. It is considered a key indicator of the health of the labor market and can provide valuable insights into the overall economic performance of a country. A higher Claimant Count Change may indicate a weakening economy, while a lower change may suggest a growing job market. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and analysts to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -11 K, consensus 11.2 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 6.7 K. Before that (May 2026): 31.2 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -13 | 5 | -18.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.42 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 147 | 200 | 181.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.17 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.85 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | -6.4 | 11.2 | 5.45 | Low |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 2.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.80 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 7.3 | 7 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -2 | -0.5 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.45 | High | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.55 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -45 | -40 | -40.50 | Medium | |
| 23:01 | UK | Consumer Confidence | -17 | -18 | -18.00 | Medium | |