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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Construction Output MoM climbed to -0.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Construction Output MoM climbed to -0.2% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from July's -0.5% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.04%. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output MoM averaged 0.0%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 36th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.13%, ranging from -1.3% to 1.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.69%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.44%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Construction Output MoM - UK
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About Construction Output MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Construction Output MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the construction industry, which is a significant contributor to the overall economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to gauge the current state and future prospects of the construction sector. A positive MoM growth in construction output indicates a thriving industry, while a negative trend may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |