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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Construction Output MoM fell to -0.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Construction Output MoM fell to -0.8% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.7% from April's -0.1% reading. The reading missed the -0.3% consensus by 0.5%. Construction Output MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output MoM averaged 0.8%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 8th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: -0.8
Error: +1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.8% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.3% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.09%, ranging from -1.3% to 1.5% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, up from the prior three at -0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.51%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Construction Output MoM - UK
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About Construction Output MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Construction Output MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the construction industry, which is a significant contributor to the overall economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to gauge the current state and future prospects of the construction sector. A positive MoM growth in construction output indicates a thriving industry, while a negative trend may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.8 %, consensus -0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |