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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Construction Output YoY fell to -1.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Construction Output YoY fell to -1.8% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.2% from April's -1.6% reading. The reading missed the -1.1% consensus by 0.7%. Construction Output YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output YoY averaged -0.65%, vs -0.5% in the prior 3-month window. Construction Output YoY is now the lowest in 24 months.
Latest Release
-1.8
Actual
-1.1
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.38
Actual: -1.8
Error: +1.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at -1.8% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.1% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.22%, ranging from -1.8% to 2.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1.03%, down from the prior three at -0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.23%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.39%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged 0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Construction Output YoY - UK
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About Construction Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -1.8 %, consensus -1.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |