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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Construction Output YoY fell to -1.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Construction Output YoY fell to -1.0% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.7% from March's -0.3% reading. The print exceeded the -1.7% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.73%. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output YoY averaged -0.65%, vs -0.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1
Actual
-1.7
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.6
Actual: -1
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at -1% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.7% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.42%, ranging from -1.1% to 2.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.5%, down from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.39%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged -0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jul 21) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Construction Output YoY - UK
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About Construction Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1 %, consensus -1.7 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 31.2 | -5 | -2.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -23.3 | -12.5 | -12.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | 2 | 20 | 7.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 8.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |