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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Construction Output YoY climbed to -1.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Construction Output YoY climbed to -1.8% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from July's -1.9% reading. The reading missed the -1.6% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.61%. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output YoY averaged -2.4%, vs -1.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 13th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.8
Actual
-1.6
Consensus
-1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.29 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -1.63
Actual: -1.8
Error: +0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at -1.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.6% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.83%, ranging from -2.5% to 1.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.2%, down from the prior three at -1.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.18%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.09%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged -0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.29%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate (Oct 30) and CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Construction Output YoY - UK
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About Construction Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -1.8 %, consensus -1.6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -2.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.45) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |