The latest UK Consumer Confidence index, released on November 21, 2025, registered at -19, down from -17 in October and below the consensus estimate of -18, according to the Sigmanomics database. This decline signals growing consumer pessimism amid ongoing economic headwinds. The current reading aligns closely with levels seen in February and March 2025 (-20 and -19 respectively), indicating a reversion to a subdued confidence environment after a brief improvement in mid-2025.

Drivers this month

• Rising inflation pressures continue to erode real incomes, dampening spending intentions.
• Monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England has increased borrowing costs.
• Heightened geopolitical risks, particularly related to EU trade negotiations and global energy markets, have increased uncertainty.

Policy pulse

The Bank of England’s recent rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation near the 2% target, have tightened financial conditions. Consumer confidence now reflects the lagged impact of these measures, with sentiment dipping below the 12-month average of -18. The government’s fiscal stance remains cautious, with limited stimulus expected in the near term.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: GBP/USD edged down 0.10% in the first hour post-release, reflecting modest market disappointment. UK 2-year gilt yields rose 5 basis points, signaling increased risk premia. Breakeven inflation rates held steady, suggesting inflation expectations remain anchored despite weaker confidence.

Consumer Confidence is a vital leading indicator for UK economic activity, closely linked to retail sales, household consumption, and GDP growth. The current -19 reading contrasts with the peak of -17 in August and October 2025 but remains better than the trough of -23 in April 2025. This volatility reflects the interplay of inflation dynamics, wage growth, and external shocks.

Core macroeconomic indicators

• Inflation remains elevated at 5.10% YoY as of October 2025, pressuring household budgets.
• Unemployment holds steady at 4.20%, indicating a resilient labor market.
• Retail sales growth slowed to 0.30% MoM in October, consistent with cautious consumer spending.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The Bank of England’s base rate stands at 5.25%, up from 4.75% three months ago. Higher borrowing costs have increased mortgage payments and credit card rates, directly impacting consumer sentiment. Credit availability remains tight, with banks adopting a more conservative lending stance.

Fiscal policy & government budget

The UK government’s fiscal policy remains focused on deficit reduction, with limited new spending announced in the recent Autumn Statement. Public sector wage growth is capped, and energy subsidies have been scaled back, further constraining disposable incomes.

Historical comparisons reveal that the index has fluctuated between -23 (April 2025) and -17 (August/October 2025) over the past year, with the current reading closer to the lower bound. This volatility reflects the sensitivity of UK consumers to inflation shocks and policy shifts.

Drivers this month

• Inflation-driven cost of living pressures contributed -0.50 points to the decline.
• Monetary tightening effects subtracted -0.30 points.
• Geopolitical uncertainty added -0.40 points.

Policy pulse

The index remains below the Bank of England’s comfort zone, indicating that monetary policy may need to balance inflation control with growth risks.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: GBP/USD depreciated slightly, while UK gilts saw a modest sell-off. The market appears cautious but not alarmed, awaiting further economic data.

Looking ahead, UK Consumer Confidence faces several key risks and opportunities. Inflation is expected to moderate gradually, but wage growth remains subdued. Monetary policy may pause if growth slows further, while fiscal support is unlikely to expand significantly in the near term.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation falls faster than expected to below 3% by mid-2026.
• Consumer confidence rebounds above -15 by Q2 2026.
• Retail sales and GDP growth accelerate, supported by easing financial conditions.

Base scenario (55% probability)

• Inflation declines slowly, stabilizing around 4% through 2026.
• Consumer confidence remains range-bound between -17 and -20.
• Modest GDP growth of 1.20% YoY, with cautious consumer spending.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Inflation remains sticky above 5%, eroding real incomes further.
• Consumer confidence falls below -22, triggering a sharper consumption slowdown.
• Recession risks rise, with GDP contracting in late 2025 and early 2026.

Overall, the outlook is clouded by inflation uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The Sigmanomics database suggests that consumer sentiment will be a critical barometer for UK economic resilience in the coming months.

The November 2025 UK Consumer Confidence reading of -19 highlights persistent economic challenges. While not at crisis levels, the decline signals caution among households facing inflation and tighter financial conditions. Policymakers must carefully balance inflation control with growth support to avoid deeper sentiment erosion.

Structural trends such as demographic shifts and evolving labor markets will also shape long-run confidence trajectories. Continued monitoring of consumer sentiment alongside core macro indicators is essential for anticipating turning points in the UK economy.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator for UK economic activity and financial markets. Movements in sentiment often precede shifts in retail sales, currency strength, and equity valuations. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with UK consumer sentiment trends and are likely to react to the latest data:

• FTSE100 – UK equity index sensitive to domestic consumption trends and economic outlook.
• GBPUSD – Currency pair reflecting UK economic sentiment and monetary policy expectations.
• EURGBP – Cross-currency pair influenced by UK-EU trade relations and confidence.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic confidence.
• HSBA – HSBC Holdings, a major UK bank, sensitive to consumer credit conditions and confidence.

FAQs

What is the current UK Consumer Confidence level?

The latest reading is -19 as of November 2025, indicating subdued consumer sentiment.

How does Consumer Confidence affect the UK economy?

It influences household spending, which drives retail sales and GDP growth, making it a key economic indicator.

What factors impact UK Consumer Confidence?

Inflation, monetary policy, fiscal measures, and geopolitical risks are primary drivers of consumer sentiment.

Takeaway: The November 2025 dip in UK Consumer Confidence signals caution amid inflation and policy tightening. Monitoring this indicator is crucial for anticipating economic momentum and market shifts.