UK consumer confidence fell to -19 in January, reversing December's -16. The index has hovered between -17 and -23 over the past year, signaling persistent caution among households.

UK Consumer Confidence Slides to -19: January 2026 Data

The latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index for the United Kingdom registered a reading of -19 for January 2026, marking a three-point decline from December's -16. This drop interrupts a period of relative stability, with the index fluctuating between -17 and -23 since March 2025. The headline figure remains well below pre-pandemic levels, underscoring ongoing economic headwinds.[1]

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Personal finances outlook: -2pp
General economic situation: -1pp
Major purchase intentions: -1pp

Policy pulse

The -19 reading stands far below the Bank of England’s neutral zone, reflecting subdued sentiment despite stable monetary policy.

Market lens

UK equities opened flat as the confidence dip matched consensus expectations. Investors showed little immediate reaction, with most market participants already pricing in persistent consumer caution. The muted response reflects the entrenched nature of weak sentiment, which has failed to break out of negative territory for nearly a year.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

January’s -19 print follows December’s -16 and matches the level seen in September 2025. The index reached its lowest point in the past year at -23 in April 2025, while the highest was -17 in both August and October 2025. The 12-month average stands at -18.8, underscoring the lack of significant improvement.

Comparative benchmarks

Compared to January 2025, when the index stood at -19, sentiment remains unchanged year-over-year. The persistent negative readings highlight the absence of a sustained recovery in household confidence.

Policy pulse

Despite the Bank of England maintaining its policy rate, consumer sentiment has not responded with optimism. The gap between the confidence index and central bank targets remains wide.

Chart Dynamics

January’s -19 reading marks a reversal from December’s -16 and aligns with the 12-month average of -18.8. The index has failed to break above -17 since August 2025, signaling entrenched pessimism. Over the past six months, readings have oscillated between -17 and -20, with no clear upward momentum.

Compared to the -23 trough in April 2025, current sentiment shows modest improvement but remains far from positive territory. The lack of a sustained rebound suggests that households remain wary amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Consumer Confidence trend March 2025 – January 2026

What This Chart Tells Us: The UK Consumer Confidence Index has been locked in a narrow, negative band for nearly a year. The latest dip to -19 underscores persistent caution, with no signs of a breakout from entrenched pessimism. Directional shifts remain muted, reflecting ongoing economic headwinds and subdued household outlooks.

Forward Outlook

Scenario analysis

Bullish (20%): Index rises to -15 or better by mid-2026 if wage growth accelerates and inflation moderates.
Base case (60%): Confidence remains between -17 and -20 through Q2 2026, mirroring recent trends.
Bearish (20%): Renewed economic shocks push the index back toward -23, as seen in April 2025.

Risks and catalysts

Upside risks include stronger-than-expected real income gains and improved labor market conditions. Downside risks stem from persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and weak retail activity.

Data source and methodology

Figures are sourced from the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, based on monthly surveys of UK households. The index aggregates responses on personal finances, economic outlook, and major purchase intentions.[1]

Closing Thoughts

Market lens

GBP/USD held steady after the release, reflecting limited surprise in the data. Currency markets have largely discounted further declines in consumer confidence, with traders focusing on upcoming inflation and employment reports for directional cues.

Broader implications

The persistence of negative sentiment signals ongoing challenges for UK retailers and policymakers. Without a clear improvement in household outlooks, consumption-driven growth will remain constrained in the near term.

Key Markets Reacting to Consumer Confidence

UK consumer confidence readings often ripple through equity, currency, and crypto markets. While the latest data produced muted immediate moves, several tradable symbols remain sensitive to shifts in household sentiment. Below are verified instruments from Sigmanomics, each with a distinct correlation to the confidence index.

AAPL – Consumer electronics demand in the UK is closely tied to household confidence, impacting sales momentum.
GBPUSD – The pound often reacts to shifts in UK sentiment, especially when confidence diverges from consensus.
BTCUSD – Crypto flows can spike during periods of consumer pessimism, as households seek alternative assets.

Consumer Confidence vs. GBPUSD Since 2020

Year	Avg. Confidence	GBPUSD Trend
2020	-27	Volatile, net decline
2021	-15	Recovery phase
2022	-22	Downward pressure
2023	-19	Range-bound
2024	-18	Stable
2025	-19	Muted moves

Periods of sharply negative sentiment have historically coincided with GBPUSD weakness, while recoveries in confidence have supported currency stabilization.

FAQ

What does the latest UK Consumer Confidence reading indicate?: January 2026’s -19 reading signals renewed caution among UK households, reversing December’s modest improvement and maintaining a negative trend.
How does the current Consumer Confidence Index compare to historical averages?: The index has averaged -18.8 over the past year, with January’s figure aligning closely with this trend and showing no significant recovery.
What is the focus of this UK Consumer Confidence report?: This report analyzes the January 2026 consumer confidence data, its drivers, historical context, and implications for markets and policy.

UK consumer confidence remains subdued, with January’s -19 reading highlighting persistent household caution and limited upside momentum.

Updated 2/27/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK, January 2026 release. Data via Sigmanomics database.

Economic Calendar - UK Events

Thursday, March 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-12	-10	-9	-8.83	Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	0.7	2.3	2.4	2.35	Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.59	6.62	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1.3	1.1	1.1	1.40	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.3	0.8	-0.1	-0.12	Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	44.5	46.4	47	47.23	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	7.2	3.4	1	3.08	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.9	53.92	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	53.7	53.9	53.93	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.1	1.5	1.4	1.52	Low
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	5.9	6.1	3.8	4.67	Low
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.812	1.652	1.2	1.40	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.7	51.8	52	52.07	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.08	4.49	4.2	4.18	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	-0.10	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	60	61.01	62.5	61.54	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	5.9	6.1	6.2	6.38	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.17	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	1	1.1	0.90	Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-8.2	17.7	5.3	3.77	Low
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-19	-16	-16	-16.50	Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-17	-30	-43.00	Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-43	-17	-17	-30.00	Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.9	54	53.6	53.70	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.50	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52	51.8	51.9	51.92	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.7	53.3	53.33	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52	51.8	51.5	51.57	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	53.9	54	53.5	53.52	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	30.4	-13.4	19	21.44	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	4.5	1.9	2.7	2.97	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	2	0.3	0.1	0.47	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	1.8	0.4	0.2	0.48	High
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-28	-30	-25	-25.00	Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	2.4	2.5	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.5	0.4	-0.4	-0.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.1	3.2	3	2.98	Medium
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.6	0.3	-0.6	-0.63	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3	3.4	3	2.92	High
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.4	-0.5	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.2	3.9	3.75	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-0.2	0.5	0.9	0.80	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0	-0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	2.5	3.1	3.2	3.03	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.5	0.7	-0.1	-0.30	Low
07:00	UK	CPI	3	3.4	3	3.00	High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	28.6	2.7	22	22.30	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	52	82	-40	0.50	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.2	4.6	4.4	4.45	Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-2.7	1.6	0.5	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	0.5	1.3	1.2	1.63	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.7	1.2	1.3	1.25	Low
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-4.34	-11.33	-6	-6.24	Low
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-0.3	-0.3	-0.8	-0.98	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	0.5	2.3	1.6	2.00	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	-0.9	1.3	-0.2	-0.13	Medium
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2	2.5	3.1	3.33	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	-0.5	1.9	-0.3	0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.25	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-0.5	-0.8	0.5	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.18	High
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-10	-14	-12	-11.83	Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	2.3	1	1.3	1.25	Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	1	0.3	0	0.30	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	0.7	-0.6	0.4	0.38	Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.62	6.77	6.7	6.71	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	5	4	7	6.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	0	0	0	0.00	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	4	5	2	2.50	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	46.4	40.1	42.5	42.73	Medium
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.4	3.9	2	4.08	Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.7	51.4	53.9	53.93	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	54	51.4	54.3	54.32	Low
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.8	50.6	51.6	51.67	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	0.3	-0.4	0.6	0.47	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	1	0.6	1.5	1.30	Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	61.01	64.07	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	1.524	2.143	1.9	2.10	Medium
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.80	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.6	4.59	4.6	4.58	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.1	6.6	6.1	6.28	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	17.7	-14.3	6.7	5.17	Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Shop Price Index YoY	1.5	0.7	0.7	0.82	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.7	51.90	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50.6	50.8	50.82	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.4	51.5	51.60	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	-	51.4	51.7	51.72	Medium
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	-	50.6	50.6	50.67	Medium
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-	-0.1	-0.2	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	0.6	0.8	1.07	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	0.7	0.50	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-0.2	-0.3	0.08	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-	-17	-17	-17.50	Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Distributive Trades	-	-44	-57	-70.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-	-11.65	-15	-12.56	Low
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing	-	-11.65	-13.5	-13.50	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-32	-28	-28.00	Medium
11:00	UK	CBI Business Optimism Index	-	-31	-27	-27.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	1.7	1.8	2.10	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	-	3.5	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.18	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.08	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	-	1.1	1	0.90	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	-	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	-	0	0.1	0.10	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-	-0.4	0.2	0.00	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	-	3.4	3.3	3.13	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	-	3.8	3.7	3.55	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	-	0.3	0.1	0.20	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-	-0.2	0.2	0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	-	3.2	3.1	3.03	High
Tuesday, January 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.7	4.5	4.55	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-43	-38	-20	-25.25	Low
07:00	UK	Employment Change	82	-16	-25	15.50	High
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	17.9	20.1	20.5	20.80	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.12	High
Friday, January 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
13:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
12:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	-	-0.1	-0.1	-0.05	Low
07:00	UK	GDP 3-Month Avg	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.05	Medium
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production MoM	2.1	0.4	0.5	0.85	Medium
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product MoM	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.15	High
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	-11.46	-11.81	-9.1	-10.28	High
07:00	UK	Balance of Trade	-6.116	-6.531	-3.5	-3.74	Low
07:00	UK	Industrial Production MoM	1.1	1.3	0.1	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	0.4	-0.4	-0.00	Low
07:00	UK	Manufacturing Production YoY	2.1	-0.2	-0.3	0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Goods Trade Balance	-23.71	-24.17	-20.4	-22.05	High
07:00	UK	Construction Output YoY	-1.1	0.9	0.1	-0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.4	1.1	1.1	1.05	High
07:00	UK	NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	0.1	0	-0.2	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	Construction Output MoM	-1.3	-1.2	-0.3	-0.80	Low
00:01	UK	RICS House Price Balance	-14	-14	-16	-15.83	Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:01	UK	BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	1	1.2	0.6	0.55	High
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
10:00	UK	BBA Mortgage Rate	6.77	6.81	6.6	6.61	Low
07:00	UK	House Price Index MoM	-0.6	-0.1	0.2	0.18	Medium
07:00	UK	House Price Index YoY	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.40	Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Construction PMI	40.1	39.4	40.1	40.33	Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.4	51.2	52.1	52.13	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	51.4	51.3	52.1	52.12	Low
09:00	UK	New Car Sales YoY	3.9	-1.6	-1	1.08	Low
00:01	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.7	1.2	0.6	0.87	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	Mortgage Approvals	64.53	65.01	64.4	63.44	Medium
09:30	UK	BoE Consumer Credit	2.077	1.713	1.1	1.30	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals MoM	6.6	5.9	5.2	6.08	Low
09:30	UK	M4 Money Supply MoM	0.8	-0.2	-0.1	0.00	Low
09:30	UK	Mortgage Lending	4.49	4.16	4.5	4.48	Medium
09:30	UK	Net Lending to Individuals	6.6	5.4	5.2	5.38	Low
Friday, January 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50.6	50.2	51.2	51.27	Low
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	0.6	1.8	1.2	1.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.03	Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	-	0.3	0.4	0.27	Medium
07:00	UK	Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	-	1.8	1.5	1.30	Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	-	1.2	1.5	1.30	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	-	3	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-	-1	0.6	0.97	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	-	-1.1	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Monday, December 22, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
07:00	UK	Current Account	-12.1	-21.2	-21.3	-16.70	Medium
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	GDP Growth Rate YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.30	Low
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product YoY	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.25	High
07:00	UK	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.08	High
07:00	UK	Business Investment YoY	2.7	3.2	0.7	0.92	Low
07:00	UK	Business Investment QoQ	1.5	-1.7	-0.3	-0.65	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-	-37	-34	-34.00	Medium
07:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	-11.65	-21.19	-10	-7.56	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Sales MoM	-0.1	-0.9	0.4	0.68	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales YoY	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.17	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY	1.2	1.6	1.6	1.40	High
07:00	UK	Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM	-0.2	-0.8	0.2	0.57	High
00:01	UK	Consumer Confidence	-17	-19	-18	-18.50	Medium
00:01	UK	Car Production YoY	-14.3	-23.8	-7.6	-9.13	Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
12:00	UK	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	49	59	49	48.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Cut	59	49	59	59.50	Medium
12:00	UK	BoE MPC Vote Hike	9	9	9	9.00	Medium
12:00	UK	Interest Rate Decision	3.75	4	3.75	3.75	High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
11:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
11:00	UK	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-32	-37	-35	-35.00	Medium
09:30	UK	House Price Index YoY	-	2.6	2.4	2.70	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output MoM	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.08	Low
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.4	-0.1	-0.15	Medium
07:00	UK	PPI Input MoM	0.3	0	0.2	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate MoM	-0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.13	Low
07:00	UK	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.4	3.4	3.38	Medium
07:00	UK	Inflation Rate YoY	3.2	3.6	3.5	3.42	High
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index MoM	-0.4	0.3	0	-0.20	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Input YoY	1.1	0.8	0.4	0.30	Low
07:00	UK	Retail Price Index YoY	3.8	4.3	4.3	4.15	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Output YoY	3.4	3.6	3.4	3.22	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output YoY	3.5	3.6	3.4	3.45	Low
07:00	UK	PPI Core Output MoM	0	0.1	0	0.00	Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	51.2	50.2	51.2	51.23	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	52.1	51.2	51.9	52.10	Low
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.1	51.3	52	52.10	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Services PMI	52.1	51.3	51.6	51.62	Medium
07:00	UK	Average Earnings excl. Bonus	4.6	4.7	4.5	4.53	Low
07:00	UK	Average Earnings incl. Bonus	4.7	4.9	4.4	4.45	Medium
07:00	UK	Claimant Count Change	20.1	-3.9	22.3	22.60	Low
07:00	UK	HMRC Payrolls Change	-38	-22	-40	-45.25	Low
07:00	UK	Unemployment Rate	5.1	5	5.1	5.12	High
07:00	UK	Employment Change	-16	-22	-60	-19.50	High
Monday, December 15, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
09:30	UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.2	50.2	48.2	48.27	High
09:30	UK	S&P Global Composite PMI	52.1	51.2	51.6	51.63	Low