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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Consumer Confidence climbed to -17.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Consumer Confidence climbed to -17.0% in July 2026, up 6.0% from June's -23.0% reading. The print exceeded the -21.0% consensus by 4.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -19.75%. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Confidence averaged -23.0%, vs -21.67% in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Confidence is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
-17
Actual
-21
Consensus
-23
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -19.5
Actual: -17
Error: -2.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Confidence (United Kingdom) was reported at -17% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -21% by 4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -23%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -19.2%, ranging from -23% to -17% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -21%, down from the prior three at -19%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.27%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.57%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Aug 18) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Consumer Confidence - UK
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About Consumer Confidence — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Index The Consumer Confidence Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among consumers regarding the state of the economy. It is based on surveys and data collected from a representative sample of households, and is used by economists and investors to gauge consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. A higher index value indicates a positive outlook, while a lower value suggests a more negative sentiment. This index is a valuable tool for businesses and policymakers in making informed decisions and predicting future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -17 %, consensus -21 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -23 %. Before that (May 2026): -23 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.75) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -4 | 5 | -32.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 147 | 200 | 220.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.3 | 4 | 4.15 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.85 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 6.7 | 5.2 | 4.80 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | Labour Productivity QoQ | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.10 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.3 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.80 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 7.3 | 7 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -2 | -0.5 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium | |