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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core Inflation Rate YoY held to 2.6% in August 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate YoY held to 2.6% in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.1%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.6%, vs 2.85% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 13th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.6
Actual
2.6
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.65
Actual: 2.6
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.6% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.6% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.93%, ranging from 2.5% to 3.5% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.6%, down from the prior three at 2.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.2%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Gov Bailey Speech (Oct 14) and Industrial Production MoM (Oct 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - UK
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 2.6 %, consensus 2.6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.56) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.85 | High |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -2.5 | -1.6 | -1.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.30 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade Non-EU | -9.66 | -9.9 | -9.90 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -3.45 | -3.6 | -2.17 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -20.97 | -21.8 | -19.33 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.25 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.50 | Low | |