UK Gross Domestic Product QoQ for November 2025: Steady Growth Amid Lingering Challenges
Key Takeaways: The UK economy expanded by 0.10% quarter-on-quarter in November 2025, matching expectations and maintaining the same pace as October. This steady but modest growth reflects ongoing resilience despite external pressures and tighter monetary conditions. The 12-month average growth rate stands at 0.37%, indicating a slowdown from mid-year peaks. Fiscal tightening and geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on sentiment, while structural shifts in services and manufacturing sectors shape the medium-term outlook.
Table of Contents
The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for November 2025 recorded a 0.10% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase, as reported on December 22, 2025, by the Sigmanomics database. This figure aligns precisely with market estimates and matches October’s growth rate, signaling a continuation of subdued expansion in the British economy. Over the past year, the UK has experienced a deceleration from the 0.70% QoQ growth peaks seen in May and June 2025, with the 12-month average growth now at 0.37%.
Drivers this month
- Services sector growth remained stable but modest, contributing approximately 0.06 percentage points to overall GDP.
- Manufacturing output showed slight improvement, adding 0.02 percentage points, supported by easing supply chain disruptions.
- Construction activity was flat, reflecting ongoing challenges from higher borrowing costs and labor shortages.
Policy pulse
The Bank of England’s monetary policy stance remains restrictive, with the base rate steady at 5.25% since November. Inflation pressures have eased slightly but remain above the 2% target, limiting scope for rate cuts. Fiscal policy continues to tighten, with government budget constraints and reduced public spending growth weighing on domestic demand.
Market lens
Following the GDP release, sterling (GBPUSD) showed a mild appreciation of 0.15%, reflecting relief at the absence of a growth shock. UK 2-year gilt yields edged up by 5 basis points, signaling persistent inflation concerns. Equity markets, represented by the FTSE 100, were largely unchanged in the immediate aftermath.
November’s GDP growth of 0.10% QoQ continues a pattern of modest expansion following a volatile first half of 2025. The Sigmanomics database shows that growth was 0.70% in both May and June, before slowing to 0.30% in August and September, and then to 0.10% in October and November. Year-over-year (YoY), November 2025’s GDP growth is approximately 1.50%, down from 2.80% in mid-2025.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of England’s policy rate has held steady at 5.25% since November 2025, after a series of hikes earlier in the year aimed at curbing inflation. Financial conditions remain tight, with mortgage rates elevated and credit growth subdued. The Monetary Policy Committee’s forward guidance suggests a cautious approach, balancing inflation risks against growth concerns.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a reduction in the budget deficit through restrained public spending and tax adjustments. This fiscal stance is expected to dampen near-term growth but aims to stabilize public debt levels over the medium term.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global uncertainties, including tensions in Eastern Europe and trade frictions with key partners, have contributed to subdued export growth. Energy price volatility has moderated but remains a risk factor. The UK’s trade balance remains under pressure, limiting net GDP contributions from external demand.
What This Chart Tells Us
The GDP trajectory is trending downward from mid-2025 highs, indicating a cooling economy. The persistence of 0.10% monthly growth suggests resilience but limited momentum. This pattern signals a cautious environment for investment and hiring, with inflation and fiscal tightening as key constraints.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: GBPUSD rose 0.15% post-release, reflecting market relief at steady growth. UK 2-year gilt yields increased by 5 basis points, signaling ongoing inflation vigilance. The FTSE 100 remained flat, indicating investor caution amid mixed signals.
Looking ahead, the UK economy faces a mix of challenges and opportunities. The baseline scenario projects continued modest growth of 0.10%–0.20% QoQ through early 2026, supported by stable services demand and gradual manufacturing recovery. Inflation is expected to ease slowly, allowing the Bank of England to maintain or cautiously reduce rates by mid-2026.
Bullish Scenario (20% probability)
- Faster-than-expected easing of inflation pressures leads to earlier monetary easing.
- Improved global trade conditions boost exports and manufacturing output.
- Fiscal stimulus measures support domestic demand.
Base Scenario (60% probability)
- Modest GDP growth of 0.10%–0.20% QoQ continues.
- Monetary policy remains cautious, with rates steady or slightly reduced.
- Fiscal consolidation persists, limiting upside growth potential.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical shocks or energy price spikes disrupt growth.
- Inflation remains sticky, forcing further monetary tightening.
- Consumer and business confidence deteriorate, leading to contraction.
November 2025’s GDP data confirms the UK economy’s slow but steady expansion amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. The persistence of 0.10% QoQ growth highlights resilience but underscores the need for policy balance. Monetary and fiscal authorities face the challenge of supporting growth without reigniting inflation. External risks and structural shifts in the economy will shape the trajectory into 2026.
Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation trends, global trade developments, and domestic demand indicators closely. The interplay of these factors will determine whether the UK can regain stronger growth momentum or face prolonged stagnation.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product QoQ
The UK GDP QoQ reading is a critical barometer for several financial markets. Sterling pairs, UK government bonds, and equity indices typically respond swiftly to GDP surprises. Additionally, global risk sentiment and commodity markets may adjust based on growth outlook revisions.
- GBPUSD – The primary currency pair reflecting UK economic health and monetary policy expectations.
- FTSE100 – UK’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to growth and corporate earnings outlook.
- HSBA – HSBC Holdings, a major UK bank, whose stock price correlates with economic activity and interest rates.
- EURGBP – Reflects relative economic strength between the UK and Eurozone.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk sentiment proxy, can react to macroeconomic shifts.
Since 2020, GBPUSD has shown a strong positive correlation with UK GDP growth, rising during periods of expansion and falling amid contractions. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to domestic economic fundamentals and monetary policy shifts.
FAQs
- What does the UK GDP QoQ figure for November 2025 indicate?
- The 0.10% QoQ growth indicates modest but steady expansion, consistent with recent months and reflecting ongoing economic resilience amid challenges.
- How does this GDP reading affect UK monetary policy?
- The steady growth supports the Bank of England’s cautious stance, likely maintaining current interest rates until inflation shows clearer signs of easing.
- Why is the GDP growth rate important for investors?
- GDP growth signals the health of the economy, influencing currency values, bond yields, and equity prices, guiding investment decisions.
Takeaway: The UK’s November 2025 GDP growth of 0.10% QoQ confirms a steady but slow recovery, with monetary and fiscal policies balancing growth and inflation risks into 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
GBPUSD – Primary UK currency pair reflecting economic and monetary policy shifts.
FTSE100 – UK equity index sensitive to GDP and corporate earnings.
HSBA – HSBC Holdings, a major UK bank linked to economic activity.
EURGBP – Currency pair reflecting UK-Eurozone economic dynamics.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, a risk sentiment proxy reacting to macro trends.
November 2025’s GDP growth of 0.10% QoQ matches October’s figure and is below the 12-month average of 0.37%. This steady but slow pace contrasts with the sharper expansions of 0.70% seen in May and June 2025. The chart below illustrates the deceleration trend over the past six months.
Sectoral contributions reveal that services remain the backbone of growth, while manufacturing shows tentative signs of recovery. Construction’s stagnation reflects persistent headwinds from financing costs and labor market tightness.