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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 0.4% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product QoQ fell to 0.4% in Q2 2026, released August 2026, down 0.2% from March's 0.6% reading. The reading matched the 0.4% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.32%. The reading is in the 65th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.4% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.6% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.53%, up from the prior three at 0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.25%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - UK
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
UK Gross Domestic Product QoQ for Q2 2026 came in at 0.400000%, matching estimates but down from Q1’s 0.600000%. The economy showed a slower growth pace compared to the previous quarter, indicating a moderation in expansion. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and Bank of England policy signals amid this deceleration. Updated 8/13/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.78) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |