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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change climbed to 13K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change climbed to 13K in September 2026, released October 2026, up 12K from August's 1K reading. The print exceeded the -15K consensus by 28K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -22.17K. Over the past 3 months, HMRC Payrolls Change averaged -19.5K, vs -34K in the prior 3-month window. HMRC Payrolls Change is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
13
Actual
-15
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±27.33 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -25
Actual: 13
Error: -38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HMRC Payrolls Change (United Kingdom) was reported at 13 thousand in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -15 thousand by 28 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 1 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -21 thousand, ranging from -100 thousand to 20 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -9 thousand, up from the prior three at -34 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 32 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 37 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, HMRC Payrolls Change has averaged -4 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 27 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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HMRC Payrolls Change - UK
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About HMRC Payrolls Change — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
HMRC Payrolls Change is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of employees on payrolls in the United Kingdom. It is released monthly by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and provides valuable insights into the health of the UK labor market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the overall strength of the economy and can impact consumer spending and business confidence. A positive change in HMRC Payrolls indicates an increase in employment, while a negative change suggests a decrease in job opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 13 K, consensus -15 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -26 K. Before that (Jul 2026): -13 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |