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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change fell to -100K in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change fell to -100K in April 2026, released May 2026, down 72K from March's -28K reading. The reading missed the -26K consensus by 74K. HMRC Payrolls Change has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HMRC Payrolls Change averaged 4.5K, vs -30.67K in the prior 3-month window. HMRC Payrolls Change is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
-100
Actual
-26
Consensus
-28
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±17 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -18.5
Actual: -100
Error: +81.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HMRC Payrolls Change (United Kingdom) was reported at -100 thousand in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -26 thousand by 74 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of -28 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -27 thousand, ranging from -100 thousand to 20 thousand across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -30 thousand, up from the prior three at -38 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 31 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 41 thousand). In May readings over the past 3 years, HMRC Payrolls Change has averaged -73 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 17 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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HMRC Payrolls Change - UK
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About HMRC Payrolls Change — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
HMRC Payrolls Change is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of employees on payrolls in the United Kingdom. It is released monthly by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and provides valuable insights into the health of the UK labor market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the overall strength of the economy and can impact consumer spending and business confidence. A positive change in HMRC Payrolls indicates an increase in employment, while a negative change suggests a decrease in job opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -100 K, consensus -26 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -11 K. Before that (Feb 2026): 20 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.