Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change fell to -4K in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change fell to -4K in June 2026, released July 2026, down 7K from May's 3K reading. The reading missed the 20K consensus by 24K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -23.33K. Over the past 3 months, HMRC Payrolls Change averaged -49K, vs -0.67K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-4
Actual
20
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±17 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 22
Actual: -4
Error: +26
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HMRC Payrolls Change (United Kingdom) was reported at -4 thousand in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 20 thousand by 24 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 3 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -21 thousand, ranging from -100 thousand to 20 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -34 thousand, down from the prior three at -11 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 30 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 40 thousand). In July readings over the past 3 years, HMRC Payrolls Change has averaged -10 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 17 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
HMRC Payrolls Change - UK
Loading chart data...
About HMRC Payrolls Change — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
HMRC Payrolls Change is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of employees on payrolls in the United Kingdom. It is released monthly by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and provides valuable insights into the health of the UK labor market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the overall strength of the economy and can impact consumer spending and business confidence. A positive change in HMRC Payrolls indicates an increase in employment, while a negative change suggests a decrease in job opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -4 K, consensus 20 K. Prior reading (May 2026): 2 K. Before that (Apr 2026): -100 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |