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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change held to -13K in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom HMRC Payrolls Change held to -13K in July 2026, released August 2026. The reading missed the 5K consensus by 18K. HMRC Payrolls Change has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, HMRC Payrolls Change averaged -1K, vs -30.33K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-13
Actual
5
Consensus
-13
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±23.5 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 19.5
Actual: -13
Error: +32.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
HMRC Payrolls Change (United Kingdom) was reported at -13 thousand in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5 thousand by 18 thousand. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -22 thousand, ranging from -100 thousand to 20 thousand across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -5 thousand, up from the prior three at -30 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 30 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 38 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, HMRC Payrolls Change has averaged 1 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 24 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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HMRC Payrolls Change - UK
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About HMRC Payrolls Change — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
HMRC Payrolls Change is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of employees on payrolls in the United Kingdom. It is released monthly by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and provides valuable insights into the health of the UK labor market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the overall strength of the economy and can impact consumer spending and business confidence. A positive change in HMRC Payrolls indicates an increase in employment, while a negative change suggests a decrease in job opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -13 K, consensus 5 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -4 K. Before that (May 2026): 2 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |