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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom House Price Index MoM climbed to 0.0% in September 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom House Price Index MoM climbed to 0.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from August's -0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.03%. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.08
Actual: 0
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.03%, ranging from -1.8% to 2.8% across 13 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.11%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.7%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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House Price Index MoM - UK
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About House Price Index MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The House Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the average selling price of residential properties in a given market from one month to the next. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and can help investors, policymakers, and individuals make informed decisions about buying or selling real estate. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to track trends and identify potential risks or opportunities in the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |