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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom House Price Index MoM fell to 0.3% in February 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased March 2026
United Kingdom House Price Index MoM fell to 0.3% in February 2026, released March 2026, down 0.5% from January's 0.8% reading. The print exceeded the -0.1% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.1%. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index MoM averaged 0.22%, vs -0.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.54 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -0.23
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.8% in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.09%, ranging from -1.8% to 2.8% across 17 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, down from the prior three at 0.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.07%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.61%). In March readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index MoM has averaged 0.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.54%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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House Price Index MoM - UK
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About House Price Index MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The House Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the average selling price of residential properties in a given market from one month to the next. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and can help investors, policymakers, and individuals make informed decisions about buying or selling real estate. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to track trends and identify potential risks or opportunities in the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 0.8 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.