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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.5% in May 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.5% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.7% from April's 0.2% reading. The reading missed the -0.1% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.1%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -0.1%, vs -0.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.72 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.1
Actual: -0.5
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.5% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.12%, ranging from -2% to 1.1% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.23%, down from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.9%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.76%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged -0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.73%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - UK
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About Industrial Production MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |