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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Industrial Production YoY climbed to 1.0% in May 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Industrial Production YoY climbed to 1.0% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 1.0% from April's 0.0% reading. The reading missed the 1.2% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.12%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged -0.1%, vs 0.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 94th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1
Actual
1.2
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.13
Actual: 1
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.2% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.03%, ranging from -2.5% to 2.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, down from the prior three at 1.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.13%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - UK
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About Industrial Production YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |