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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Inflation Rate YoY fell to 2.8% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom Inflation Rate YoY fell to 2.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from March's 3.3% reading. The print came in cooler than the 3.0% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.38%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 3.15%, vs 3.1% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
3
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 2.8
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.8% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.4%, ranging from 2.8% to 3.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.93%, down from the prior three at 3.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.36%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.47%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - UK
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About Inflation Rate YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.