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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
3 of 7 models in band
± 0.67% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
EUR/USD's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±0.5% over 7 days, widening to ±0.9% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 68.7% (83 forecast-days · n_eff=6 independent windows) · CI 32–91% · as of 31 Oct 2026 · n_eff as of 1 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 83 graded 14-day forecast-days since 27 Jul 2026 (6 independent windows), EUR/USD's expected-range band contained price 68.7% of the time (95% CI 32–91%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 1, 2026, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1199. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
The EUR/USD forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1199 on November 1, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.17% from the previous close of 1.1180.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a sideways movement with a decline of 0.50%, ranging between 1.1107 and 1.1286. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 1.1196. The 14-day RSI stands at 46.0, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, Bundesanleihe Auction (AT) shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, negatively correlated (r = -0.98).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.29%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Over the past 52 weeks, EUR/USD traded between 0.8560 (Apr 30, 2026) and 1.2066 (Jan 28, 2026); the current price sits 7.2% below the 52-week high.
Daily-return volatility of 0.29% is subdued for this pair, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. EUR/USD is currently trading 0.03% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 46.0, currently in neutral territory. For cross-confirmation, the Bundesanleihe Auction (AT) indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with EUR/USD (r = -0.98) and is worth watching for context.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Composite Economic Index MoM (IL) (r=+0.96), Budget Balance (IL) (r=+0.92), CPI Shelter (US) (r=+0.88)
Inversely correlated: Bundesanleihe Auction (AT) (r=-0.98), Russian Forex Intervention (RU) (r=-0.91), Interest Rate Decision (AO) (r=-0.91), Gross Domestic Product YoY (SA) (r=-0.89), Interest Rate Decision (AZ) (r=-0.89)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the global foreign exchange market, representing the exchange rate between the euro (issued by the European Central Bank) and the US dollar (issued by the Federal Reserve). Daily turnover routinely exceeds $1 trillion, making EUR/USD a benchmark for FX liquidity and a primary instrument for expressing views on the relative monetary policy stances of the ECB and the Fed.
EUR/USD moves on the interest-rate differential between the eurozone and the US, relative GDP growth, inflation prints (eurozone HICP vs US CPI), ECB and FOMC policy decisions, and eurozone political risk (peripheral spreads, elections). Risk-off sentiment typically strengthens USD as a safe-haven, weakening EUR/USD.