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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Manufacturing Production MoM fell to 0.4% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production MoM fell to 0.4% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.8% from March's 1.2% reading. The print exceeded the -0.2% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.03%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production MoM averaged 0.55%, vs 0.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.51 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.4% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.2% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.2%, ranging from -1.7% to 2.1% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.57%, down from the prior three at 0.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.07%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.07%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production MoM has averaged -0.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.51%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jul 21) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Manufacturing Production MoM - UK
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About Manufacturing Production MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector in a given month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and performance of the manufacturing industry, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic growth. A positive change in Manufacturing Production MoM indicates an increase in production and can be seen as a sign of economic expansion, while a negative change may signal a decline in manufacturing activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions and forecasts about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 31.2 | -5 | -2.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -23.3 | -12.5 | -12.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | 2 | 20 | 7.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 8.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |