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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Manufacturing Production YoY climbed to 2.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production YoY climbed to 2.3% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 1.3% from April's 1.0% reading. The print exceeded the 1.9% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.19%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production YoY averaged 1.1%, vs 0.43% in the prior 3-month window. Manufacturing Production YoY is now the highest in 26 months.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
1.9
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.78 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.35
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.3% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.9% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.44%, ranging from -2.2% to 2.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.5%, up from the prior three at 1.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.28%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.72%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production YoY has averaged 1.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Manufacturing Production YoY - UK
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About Manufacturing Production YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in production, while a negative YoY growth suggests a decline. This information is valuable for investors, policymakers, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 1.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.54) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |