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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Manufacturing Production YoY fell to 1.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Manufacturing Production YoY fell to 1.0% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2% from March's 1.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.4% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.14%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production YoY averaged 0.35%, vs 1.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1
Actual
0.4
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.78 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1
Actual: 1
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.94 | INDEX | Bullish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.91 | INDEX | Bullish FTSE 100 | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.25%, ranging from -2.2% to 2.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.17%, up from the prior three at 0.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.76%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production YoY has averaged 0.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Manufacturing Production YoY - UK
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About Manufacturing Production YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the health and growth of the manufacturing industry, which is a key driver of economic activity. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in production, while a negative YoY growth suggests a decline. This information is valuable for investors, policymakers, and businesses in making informed decisions about the state of the economy and potential investment opportunities.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50, r=0.94) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.