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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Mortgage Approvals fell to 56.05K in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals fell to 56.05K in July 2026, released September 2026, down 2.17K from June's 58.22K reading. The reading missed the 59.4K consensus by 3.35K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 62.65K. Over the past 3 months, Mortgage Approvals averaged 57.21K, vs 64.02K in the prior 3-month window. Mortgage Approvals is now the lowest in 29 months.
Latest Release
56.05
Actual
59.4
Consensus
58.22
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.78 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 58.0
Actual: 56.05
Error: +1.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mortgage Approvals (United Kingdom) was reported at 56 thousand in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 59 thousand by 3 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 58 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 62 thousand, ranging from 56 thousand to 66 thousand across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 57 thousand, down from the prior three at 63 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 4 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 2 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Mortgage Approvals has averaged 58 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Mortgage Approvals - UK
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About Mortgage Approvals — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Mortgage approvals is a financial indicator that measures the number of mortgage applications that have been approved by lenders. This indicator is used to assess the health of the housing market and the overall economy, as it reflects the demand for home ownership and the availability of credit. A high number of mortgage approvals indicates a strong housing market and consumer confidence, while a low number may suggest a slowdown in the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by financial institutions, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions about lending, investments, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 56.05 K, consensus 59.4 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 58.2 K. Before that (May 2026): 56.21 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.44) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |