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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Mortgage Approvals fell to 56.21K in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals fell to 56.21K in May 2026, released June 2026, down 9.82K from April's 66.03K reading. The reading missed the 62.9K consensus by 6.69K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 63.41K. Over the past 3 months, Mortgage Approvals averaged 64.74K, vs 62.03K in the prior 3-month window. Mortgage Approvals is now the lowest in 27 months.
Latest Release
56.21
Actual
62.9
Consensus
66.03
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.04 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 65.02
Actual: 56.21
Error: +8.81
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mortgage Approvals (United Kingdom) was reported at 56 thousand in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 63 thousand by 7 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 66 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 63 thousand, ranging from 56 thousand to 66 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 62 thousand, down from the prior three at 62 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 3 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 2 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Mortgage Approvals has averaged 61 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jul 21) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Mortgage Approvals - UK
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About Mortgage Approvals — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Mortgage approvals is a financial indicator that measures the number of mortgage applications that have been approved by lenders. This indicator is used to assess the health of the housing market and the overall economy, as it reflects the demand for home ownership and the availability of credit. A high number of mortgage approvals indicates a strong housing market and consumer confidence, while a low number may suggest a slowdown in the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by financial institutions, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions about lending, investments, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 56.21 K, consensus 62.9 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 65.94 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 63.53 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 31.2 | -5 | -2.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -23.3 | -12.5 | -12.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | 2 | 20 | 7.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 8.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |