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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Mortgage Approvals fell to 53.44K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals fell to 53.44K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.37K from August's 54.81K reading. The reading matched the 54K consensus. Mortgage Approvals has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Mortgage Approvals averaged 55.49K, vs 60.12K in the prior 3-month window. Mortgage Approvals is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
53.44
Actual
54
Consensus
54.81
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.78 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 52.87
Actual: 53.44
Error: -0.57
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mortgage Approvals (United Kingdom) was reported at 53 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 54 thousand by 1 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 55 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 60 thousand, ranging from 53 thousand to 66 thousand across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 55 thousand, down from the prior three at 60 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 4 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 2 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Mortgage Approvals has averaged 57 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Mortgage Approvals - UK
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About Mortgage Approvals — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Mortgage approvals is a financial indicator that measures the number of mortgage applications that have been approved by lenders. This indicator is used to assess the health of the housing market and the overall economy, as it reflects the demand for home ownership and the availability of credit. A high number of mortgage approvals indicates a strong housing market and consumer confidence, while a low number may suggest a slowdown in the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by financial institutions, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions about lending, investments, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 53.44 K, consensus 54 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 54.92 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 56.05 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.41) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |