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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices YoY fell to 1.7% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices YoY fell to 1.7% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.3% from April's 3.0% reading. The reading missed the 2.9% consensus by 1.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.4%. The reading is in the 21st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.7
Actual
2.9
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.6 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.9
Actual: 1.7
Error: +1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.7% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.9% by 1.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.6%, ranging from 0.6% to 2.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.23%, down from the prior three at 1.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.61%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.77%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.6%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Jul 31) and CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Nationwide Housing Prices YoY - UK
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About Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the average selling price of homes across the entire country over a 12-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the housing market, as well as the direction of home prices. It is a key tool for investors, economists, and policymakers to track and analyze trends in the real estate sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.7 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.30 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | 0.1 | 0.45 | Medium | |