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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices YoY climbed to 1.6% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices YoY climbed to 1.6% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.2% from July's 1.4% reading. The reading missed the 2.1% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.04%. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
2.1
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.63 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.05
Actual: 1.6
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.6% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.1% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.46%, ranging from 0.6% to 2.2% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.7%, up from the prior three at 0.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.5%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.77%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Nationwide Housing Prices YoY has averaged 2.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.63%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Nationwide Housing Prices YoY - UK
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About Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the average selling price of homes across the entire country over a 12-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the housing market, as well as the direction of home prices. It is a key tool for investors, economists, and policymakers to track and analyze trends in the real estate sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.8 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.62) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |