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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals climbed to 9.5B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals climbed to 9.5B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 4.5B from May's 5B reading. The print exceeded the 5.5B consensus by 4B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 6.29B. Over the past 3 months, Net Lending to Individuals averaged 6.27B, vs 6.27B in the prior 3-month window. Net Lending to Individuals is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
9.5
Actual
5.5
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.22 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.93
Actual: 9.5
Error: -4.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Lending to Individuals (United Kingdom) was reported at 9.50 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.50 billion by 4.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.39 billion, ranging from 4.60 billion to 9.50 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.77 billion, up from the prior three at 6.27 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.17 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.07 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.22 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Net Lending to Individuals - UK
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About Net Lending to Individuals — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Net Lending to Individuals is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the amount of money individuals borrow and the amount they repay, providing insight into the overall borrowing and spending habits of individuals. This indicator is often used by financial institutions and policymakers to assess the health of the economy and consumer confidence. A positive net lending to individuals indicates a healthy level of borrowing and spending, while a negative figure may suggest a decrease in consumer spending and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 9.5 B, consensus 5.5 B. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.6 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 6.2 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.77) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |