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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals fell to 4.6B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals fell to 4.6B in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.6B from April's 6.2B reading. The reading missed the 6B consensus by 1.4B. Net Lending to Individuals has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Net Lending to Individuals averaged 7.1B, vs 6.35B in the prior 3-month window. Net Lending to Individuals is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
4.6
Actual
6
Consensus
6.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.22 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 5.55
Actual: 4.6
Error: +0.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.84 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Lending to Individuals (United Kingdom) was reported at 4.60 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.00 billion by 1.40 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.14 billion, ranging from 4.60 billion to 7.00 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.87 billion, down from the prior three at 6.20 billion. In June readings over the past 3 years, Net Lending to Individuals has averaged 3.63 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.22 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 13) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Net Lending to Individuals - UK
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About Net Lending to Individuals — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Net Lending to Individuals is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the amount of money individuals borrow and the amount they repay, providing insight into the overall borrowing and spending habits of individuals. This indicator is often used by financial institutions and policymakers to assess the health of the economy and consumer confidence. A positive net lending to individuals indicates a healthy level of borrowing and spending, while a negative figure may suggest a decrease in consumer spending and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.6 B, consensus 6 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 6.2 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 8 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.84) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -26.05 | -20.2 | -20.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -13.05 | -9.6 | -9.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -8.435 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |