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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals fell to 5.8B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals fell to 5.8B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.1B from August's 6.9B reading. The reading missed the 6.2B consensus by 0.4B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 6.61B. Over the past 3 months, Net Lending to Individuals averaged 6.59B, vs 6.77B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.8
Actual
6.2
Consensus
6.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.09 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.64
Actual: 5.8
Error: -0.16
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Lending to Individuals (United Kingdom) was reported at 5.80 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.20 billion by 0.40 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.90 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.37 billion, ranging from 4.60 billion to 9.50 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.32 billion, down from the prior three at 6.77 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.17 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.35 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.09 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Net Lending to Individuals - UK
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About Net Lending to Individuals — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Net Lending to Individuals is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the amount of money individuals borrow and the amount they repay, providing insight into the overall borrowing and spending habits of individuals. This indicator is often used by financial institutions and policymakers to assess the health of the economy and consumer confidence. A positive net lending to individuals indicates a healthy level of borrowing and spending, while a negative figure may suggest a decrease in consumer spending and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 5.8 B, consensus 6.2 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6.874 B. Before that (Jul 2026): 6.3 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.44) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |