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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals fell to 6.3B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals fell to 6.3B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 3.2B from June's 9.5B reading. The reading missed the 9.2B consensus by 2.9B. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.16B. Over the past 3 months, Net Lending to Individuals averaged 7.05B, vs 7B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.3
Actual
9.2
Consensus
9.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.22 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 9.85
Actual: 6.3
Error: +3.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Lending to Individuals (United Kingdom) was reported at 6.30 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 9.20 billion by 2.90 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 9.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.40 billion, ranging from 4.60 billion to 9.50 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.80 billion, up from the prior three at 6.30 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.17 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.77 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Net Lending to Individuals has averaged 6.15 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.22 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Net Lending to Individuals - UK
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About Net Lending to Individuals — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Net Lending to Individuals is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the amount of money individuals borrow and the amount they repay, providing insight into the overall borrowing and spending habits of individuals. This indicator is often used by financial institutions and policymakers to assess the health of the economy and consumer confidence. A positive net lending to individuals indicates a healthy level of borrowing and spending, while a negative figure may suggest a decrease in consumer spending and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 6.3 B, consensus 9.2 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 9.5 B. Before that (May 2026): 4.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |