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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals MoM climbed to 6.8B in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals MoM climbed to 6.8B in February 2026, released March 2026, up 0.8B from January's 6B reading. The print exceeded the 5.6B consensus by 1.2B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.99B. Over the past 3 months, Net Lending to Individuals MoM averaged 6.2B, vs 6.2B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.8
Actual
5.6
Consensus
6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.73 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 6.5
Actual: 6.8
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 6.80 billion in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.60 billion by 1.20 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.32 billion, ranging from 5.40 billion to 7.00 billion across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.27 billion, down from the prior three at 6.33 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.52 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.98 billion). In March readings over the past 3 years, Net Lending to Individuals MoM has averaged 5.81 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.73 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul 13) and Goods Trade Balance (Jul 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Net Lending to Individuals MoM - UK
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About Net Lending to Individuals MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Net Lending to Individuals MoM (Month-on-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of credit extended to individuals by financial institutions over a one-month period. It provides valuable insights into the borrowing behavior of individuals and the overall health of the lending market. A positive reading indicates an increase in lending, which can stimulate economic growth, while a negative reading may suggest a decrease in consumer spending and potential financial instability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it can impact interest rates, inflation, and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 6.8 B, consensus 5.6 B. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 5.9 B. Before that (Dec 2025): 6.1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.76) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 3.4 | 1.8 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -26.05 | -20.2 | -20.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -13.05 | -9.6 | -9.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -8.435 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |