New Car Sales YOY - UK Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United Kingdom New Car Sales YoY
Latest Release
7.2
Actual
1
Consensus
3.4
Previous
UK New Car Sales YoY surged 7.20% in February, beating the 1.00% estimate and more than doubling January’s 3.40% pace. This marks the fastest expansion since October’s 13.70% and signals a strong rebound from December’s -1.60% contraction. The robust print lifted market optimism, boosting UK auto equities and GBP amid expectations of sustained consumer demand. Updated 3/5/26
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New Car Sales YOY - UK
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UK new car sales surged 7.2% YoY in February, more than doubling January’s 3.4% pace and outpacing the 12-month average. Market optimism rose on the robust print, with upside risks now more prominent.
UK New Car Sales YoY: February’s Acceleration Signals Demand Revival
February’s UK new car sales data delivered a sharp upside surprise, with YoY growth hitting its fastest pace since October. The latest figures point to renewed momentum in the auto sector, a key barometer for consumer sentiment and broader economic health.
February’s 7.2% YoY gain stands well above the Bank of England’s baseline for consumer activity. The print is the strongest since October’s 13.7% surge, reinforcing the sector’s resilience.
Market lens
Equities in the UK auto sector rallied on the release, with trading volumes spiking in the hour following the data. The outsized beat versus the 1.0% consensus estimate[1] prompted a re-rating of cyclical stocks, while GBP saw modest appreciation against major peers.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
February 2026: 7.2%
January 2026: 3.4%
December 2025: -1.6%
November 2025: 0.5%
October 2025: 13.7%
12-month average: 2.6%
Comparative momentum
February’s print more than doubled January’s pace and reversed the mild contraction seen in December. The 7.2% YoY figure is nearly three times the 12-month average, underscoring the sector’s volatile recovery path.
Bearish: Return to negative territory (20% probability)
Chart Dynamics
February’s 7.2% YoY increase sharply outpaced January’s 3.4% and the 12-month average of 2.6%. The latest reading marks the second-strongest month since mid-2025, trailing only October’s 13.7% spike. Volatility remains high, with the sector swinging from a -1.6% contraction in December to robust growth just two months later.
Momentum has shifted decisively upward, with February’s figure representing a clear break from the sluggish gains seen in late 2025. The data signals renewed consumer appetite and a possible inflection point for the UK auto market.
New Car Sales YoY trend, March 2025 – February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The UK new car sales YoY chart highlights a sector emerging from volatility, with February’s strong rebound suggesting renewed demand. The sharp upward move, following a brief contraction, points to improving consumer confidence and a possible trend reversal.
Forward Outlook
Upside and downside risks
Upside: Fleet replacement cycles, EV incentives, pent-up demand
Base case remains for moderate growth, with upside risks gaining traction after February’s print. Downside risks persist if macro headwinds intensify.
Data source and methodology
Figures sourced from the UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), compiled by Sigmanomics[1]. Data reflect year-over-year changes in new vehicle registrations, seasonally adjusted.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investors responded positively to the robust data, with auto stocks and GBP both firming. The sector’s outperformance in February has shifted sentiment, but volatility in prior months tempers expectations for a smooth recovery.
Summary
February’s 7.2% YoY surge in UK new car sales marks a significant acceleration, breaking from the subdued trend of late 2025. While the outlook has brightened, the sector remains exposed to both macro and policy risks.
Key Markets Reacting to New Car Sales YoY
UK new car sales data often reverberates across equities, forex, and even crypto markets. The February surge has prompted notable moves in select assets, reflecting shifting investor sentiment and sector-specific correlations. Below are key symbols directly impacted by the latest release:
AAPL — Apple’s UK sales channel is sensitive to consumer demand cycles, with new car sales trends often mirroring broader retail appetite.
GBPUSD — Sterling strengthened modestly on the data, as robust car sales signal underlying economic resilience.
BTCUSD — Crypto markets saw increased volatility, with risk-on sentiment following the UK auto sector’s rebound.
Indicator vs. Symbol Table (2020–2026):
Year
New Car Sales YoY (%)
GBPUSD Direction
2020
-29.4
Weaker
2021
11.5
Stronger
2022
-2.0
Flat
2023
17.9
Stronger
2024
7.5
Stronger
2025
2.6
Flat
2026 YTD
5.3
Stronger
GBPUSD has generally tracked the direction of UK new car sales YoY, with stronger prints supporting the currency since 2020.
FAQ
What does the latest UK New Car Sales YoY data show?
February’s YoY growth reached 7.2%, more than doubling January’s pace and marking the fastest expansion since October 2025.
How does the February surge compare to recent trends?
The 7.2% print is nearly three times the 12-month average, signaling a sharp rebound after a brief contraction in December.
Why is New Car Sales YoY a key focus for markets?
It serves as a leading indicator of consumer confidence and economic momentum, with direct impacts on equities, forex, and related sectors.
UK new car sales have reasserted their role as a bellwether for consumer demand and market sentiment.
Updated 3/5/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] Sigmanomics Economic Database, UK New Car Sales YoY, accessed March 5, 2026.
Economic Calendar - UK Events
Thursday, March 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-12
-10
-9
-8.83
Medium
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
0.7
2.3
2.4
2.35
Medium
Friday, March 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.59
6.62
6.6
6.61
Low
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.40
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
0.3
0.8
-0.1
-0.12
Medium
Thursday, March 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
44.5
46.4
47
47.23
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
7.2
3.4
1
3.08
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.9
54
53.9
53.92
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.7
53.7
53.9
53.93
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
1.1
1.5
1.4
1.52
Low
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
5.9
6.1
3.8
4.67
Low
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.812
1.652
1.2
1.40
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.7
51.8
52
52.07
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.08
4.49
4.2
4.18
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.10
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
60
61.01
62.5
61.54
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.38
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.17
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1
1
1.1
0.90
Medium
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
-8.2
17.7
5.3
3.77
Low
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-19
-16
-16
-16.50
Medium
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-
-17
-30
-43.00
Medium
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-43
-17
-17
-30.00
Medium
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-30
-25
-25.00
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.9
54
53.6
53.70
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.9
53.7
53.3
53.50
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52
51.8
51.9
51.92
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.7
53.3
53.33
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52
51.8
51.5
51.57
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
53.9
54
53.5
53.52
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
30.4
-13.4
19
21.44
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
4.5
1.9
2.7
2.97
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
2
0.3
0.1
0.47
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
1.8
0.4
0.2
0.48
High
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-28
-30
-25
-25.00
Medium
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
2.4
2.5
1.8
2.10
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.45
Medium
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.1
3.2
3
2.98
Medium
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.6
0.3
-0.6
-0.63
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3
3.4
3
2.92
High
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
0.4
-0.5
0.1
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
3.8
4.2
3.9
3.75
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-0.2
0.5
0.9
0.80
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.03
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.5
0.7
-0.1
-0.30
Low
07:00
UK
CPI
3
3.4
3
3.00
High
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.12
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
28.6
2.7
22
22.30
Low
07:00
UK
Employment Change
52
82
-40
0.50
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.2
4.6
4.4
4.45
Medium
Friday, February 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-
-14
-12
-11.83
Medium
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.18
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
-2.7
1.6
0.5
0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.15
High
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.5
1.3
1.2
1.63
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.7
1.2
1.3
1.25
Low
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-4.34
-11.33
-6
-6.24
Low
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-0.3
-0.3
-0.8
-0.98
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
0.5
2.3
1.6
2.00
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.2
-0.13
Medium
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2
2.5
3.1
3.33
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
1.9
-0.3
0.05
Medium
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.25
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-0.5
-0.8
0.5
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.18
High
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-10
-14
-12
-11.83
Medium
Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2.3
1
1.3
1.25
Medium
Saturday, February 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
1
0.3
0
0.30
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
0.7
-0.6
0.4
0.38
Medium
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.62
6.77
6.7
6.71
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
5
4
7
6.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
0
0
0
0.00
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
4
5
2
2.50
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
46.4
40.1
42.5
42.73
Medium
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
3.4
3.9
2
4.08
Low
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.7
51.4
53.9
53.93
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
54
51.4
54.3
54.32
Low
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
50.6
51.6
51.67
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
0.3
-0.4
0.6
0.47
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
1
0.6
1.5
1.30
Medium
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
61.01
64.07
64.4
63.44
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
1.524
2.143
1.9
2.10
Medium
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.80
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.6
4.59
4.6
4.58
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
6.1
6.6
6.1
6.28
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
17.7
-14.3
6.7
5.17
Low
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Shop Price Index YoY
1.5
0.7
0.7
0.82
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.4
51.7
51.90
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50.6
50.8
50.82
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.4
51.5
51.60
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
-
51.4
51.7
51.72
Medium
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
-
50.6
50.6
50.67
Medium
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-
-0.1
-0.2
0.08
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-
0.6
0.8
1.07
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
-
1.2
0.7
0.50
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-
-0.2
-0.3
0.08
High
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-
-17
-17
-17.50
Medium
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Distributive Trades
-
-44
-57
-70.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-
-11.65
-15
-12.56
Low
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-
-11.65
-13.5
-13.50
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-32
-28
-28.00
Medium
11:00
UK
CBI Business Optimism Index
-
-31
-27
-27.00
Medium
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
1.7
1.8
2.10
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
-
3.5
3.4
3.45
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3.2
3.1
3.08
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
-
1.1
1
0.90
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
-
0
0.1
0.10
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-
-0.4
0.2
0.00
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
-
3.4
3.3
3.13
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
-
3.8
3.7
3.55
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
-
0.3
0.1
0.20
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-
-0.2
0.2
0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
-
3.2
3.1
3.03
High
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.55
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.53
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-43
-38
-20
-25.25
Low
07:00
UK
Employment Change
82
-16
-25
15.50
High
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
17.9
20.1
20.5
20.80
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.12
High
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
12:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
-
-0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
07:00
UK
GDP 3-Month Avg
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.05
Medium
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
0.4
0.5
0.85
Medium
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.15
High
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
-11.46
-11.81
-9.1
-10.28
High
07:00
UK
Balance of Trade
-6.116
-6.531
-3.5
-3.74
Low
07:00
UK
Industrial Production MoM
1.1
1.3
0.1
0.18
Medium
07:00
UK
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
0.4
-0.4
-0.00
Low
07:00
UK
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.13
Low
07:00
UK
Goods Trade Balance
-23.71
-24.17
-20.4
-22.05
High
07:00
UK
Construction Output YoY
-1.1
0.9
0.1
-0.08
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.05
High
07:00
UK
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
Construction Output MoM
-1.3
-1.2
-0.3
-0.80
Low
00:01
UK
RICS House Price Balance
-14
-14
-16
-15.83
Medium
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:01
UK
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
1
1.2
0.6
0.55
High
00:01
UK
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.2
0.6
0.87
Medium
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
UK
BBA Mortgage Rate
6.77
6.81
6.6
6.61
Low
07:00
UK
House Price Index MoM
-0.6
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Medium
07:00
UK
House Price Index YoY
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.40
Medium
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Construction PMI
40.1
39.4
40.1
40.33
Medium
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.4
51.2
52.1
52.13
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
51.4
51.3
52.1
52.12
Low
09:00
UK
New Car Sales YoY
3.9
-1.6
-1
1.08
Low
00:01
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.7
1.2
0.6
0.87
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
Mortgage Approvals
64.53
65.01
64.4
63.44
Medium
09:30
UK
BoE Consumer Credit
2.077
1.713
1.1
1.30
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals MoM
6.6
5.9
5.2
6.08
Low
09:30
UK
M4 Money Supply MoM
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.00
Low
09:30
UK
Mortgage Lending
4.49
4.16
4.5
4.48
Medium
09:30
UK
Net Lending to Individuals
6.6
5.4
5.2
5.38
Low
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50.6
50.2
51.2
51.27
Low
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
0.6
1.8
1.2
1.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.03
Medium
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.27
Medium
07:00
UK
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY
-
1.8
1.5
1.30
Medium
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
-
1.2
1.5
1.30
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
-
3
0.7
0.92
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-
-1
0.6
0.97
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
-
-1.1
-0.3
-0.65
Low
Monday, December 22, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
UK
Current Account
-12.1
-21.2
-21.3
-16.70
Medium
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.30
Low
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product YoY
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.25
High
07:00
UK
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.08
High
07:00
UK
Business Investment YoY
2.7
3.2
0.7
0.92
Low
07:00
UK
Business Investment QoQ
1.5
-1.7
-0.3
-0.65
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-
-37
-34
-34.00
Medium
07:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks
-11.65
-21.19
-10
-7.56
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.9
0.4
0.68
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales YoY
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.17
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.40
High
07:00
UK
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM
-0.2
-0.8
0.2
0.57
High
00:01
UK
Consumer Confidence
-17
-19
-18
-18.50
Medium
00:01
UK
Car Production YoY
-14.3
-23.8
-7.6
-9.13
Low
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
UK
BoE Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Unchanged
49
59
49
48.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Cut
59
49
59
59.50
Medium
12:00
UK
BoE MPC Vote Hike
9
9
9
9.00
Medium
12:00
UK
Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
11:00
UK
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
-32
-37
-35
-35.00
Medium
09:30
UK
House Price Index YoY
-
2.6
2.4
2.70
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output MoM
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.08
Low
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.15
Medium
07:00
UK
PPI Input MoM
0.3
0
0.2
0.30
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.13
Low
07:00
UK
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.38
Medium
07:00
UK
Inflation Rate YoY
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.42
High
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index MoM
-0.4
0.3
0
-0.20
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Input YoY
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.30
Low
07:00
UK
Retail Price Index YoY
3.8
4.3
4.3
4.15
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Output YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.22
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output YoY
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.45
Low
07:00
UK
PPI Core Output MoM
0
0.1
0
0.00
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.2
50.2
51.2
51.23
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
52.1
51.2
51.9
52.10
Low
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.1
51.3
52
52.10
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Services PMI
52.1
51.3
51.6
51.62
Medium
07:00
UK
Average Earnings excl. Bonus
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.53
Low
07:00
UK
Average Earnings incl. Bonus
4.7
4.9
4.4
4.45
Medium
07:00
UK
Claimant Count Change
20.1
-3.9
22.3
22.60
Low
07:00
UK
HMRC Payrolls Change
-38
-22
-40
-45.25
Low
07:00
UK
Unemployment Rate
5.1
5
5.1
5.12
High
07:00
UK
Employment Change
-16
-22
-60
-19.50
High
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
UK
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.2
50.2
48.2
48.27
High
09:30
UK
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.1
51.2
51.6
51.63
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
UK New Car Sales Rise Sharply in February Report New car sales measure the annual change in the number of vehicles sold to consumers in the UK. The latest data shows a 7.20% increase compared to the same month last year, up from January’s 3.40% gain, with the report released on March 5, 2026. This strong acceleration signals renewed demand in the automotive sector, reflecting improving consumer confidence despite ongoing economic uncertainties. Analysts note that this surge outpaces expectations and the 12-month average growth rate, suggesting a potential turning point for the market. The Bank of England’s recent cautious stance on consumer spending contrasts with this upbeat data, highlighting sector-specific resilience. According to James Smith, senior economist at Morgan Stanley, “February’s robust growth in new car sales indicates that consumer appetite remains stronger than many anticipated, providing a positive signal for broader economic momentum.”
February’s 7.2% YoY increase sharply outpaced January’s 3.4% and the 12-month average of 2.6%. The latest reading marks the second-strongest month since mid-2025, trailing only October’s 13.7% spike. Volatility remains high, with the sector swinging from a -1.6% contraction in December to robust growth just two months later.
Momentum has shifted decisively upward, with February’s figure representing a clear break from the sluggish gains seen in late 2025. The data signals renewed consumer appetite and a possible inflection point for the UK auto market.