Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom New Car Sales YoY fell to 12.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom New Car Sales YoY fell to 12.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.6% from August's 13.7% reading. The reading matched the 12.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 8.47%. Over the past 3 months, New Car Sales YoY averaged 12.27%, vs 12.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
12.1
Actual
12
Consensus
13.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.01 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 14.17
Actual: 12.1
Error: +2.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Sales YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 12.1% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 12% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 13.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.94%, ranging from -1.6% to 13.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 12.5%, up from the prior three at 8.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.01%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.93%). In October readings over the past 3 years, New Car Sales YoY has averaged 8.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.01%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 9) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
New Car Sales YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About New Car Sales YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
New Car Sales YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of new cars sold by a particular company or industry. This metric is used to assess the overall health and growth of the automotive market, as well as the performance of individual companies within the industry. A positive YoY change indicates an increase in new car sales, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it provides valuable insights into consumer spending and economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 12.1 %, consensus 12 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 13.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 11.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.20 | High | |