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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom New Car Sales YoY climbed to 13.7% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom New Car Sales YoY climbed to 13.7% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 2.0% from July's 11.7% reading. The print exceeded the 11.0% consensus by 2.7%. New Car Sales YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, New Car Sales YoY averaged 11.55%, vs 12.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
13.7
Actual
11
Consensus
11.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 13.58
Actual: 13.7
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Sales YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 13.7% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 11% by 2.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 11.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.1%, ranging from -1.6% to 13.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 12.27%, up from the prior three at 5.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.2%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 5.42%). In September readings over the past 3 years, New Car Sales YoY has averaged 3.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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New Car Sales YoY - UK
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About New Car Sales YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
New Car Sales YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of new cars sold by a particular company or industry. This metric is used to assess the overall health and growth of the automotive market, as well as the performance of individual companies within the industry. A positive YoY change indicates an increase in new car sales, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it provides valuable insights into consumer spending and economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 13.7 %, consensus 11 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 11.7 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 11.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 8.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 70.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 5.00 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |