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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom New Car Sales YoY climbed to 11.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom New Car Sales YoY climbed to 11.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 4.3% from May's 7.1% reading. The print exceeded the 2.8% consensus by 8.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.95%. Over the past 3 months, New Car Sales YoY averaged 15.55%, vs 5.73% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
11.4
Actual
2.8
Consensus
7.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.5
Actual: 11.4
Error: -6.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Sales YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 11.4% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.8% by 8.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 7.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.86%, ranging from -5% to 13.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8.57%, up from the prior three at 1.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.74%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 5.37%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jul 21) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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New Car Sales YoY - UK
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About New Car Sales YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
New Car Sales YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of new cars sold by a particular company or industry. This metric is used to assess the overall health and growth of the automotive market, as well as the performance of individual companies within the industry. A positive YoY change indicates an increase in new car sales, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it provides valuable insights into consumer spending and economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 11.4 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 7.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 24 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 31.2 | -5 | -2.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -23.3 | -12.5 | -12.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | 2 | 20 | 7.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 8.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |