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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker climbed to 0.5% in August 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsQuarterlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker climbed to 0.5% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from July's 0.4% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.57%. Over the past 3 months, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker averaged 0.48%, vs 0.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 65th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.5% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.34%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, down from the prior three at 0.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In September readings over the past 3 years, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker - UK
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About NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker is a widely recognized and trusted financial indicator that provides timely and accurate insights into the health of the economy. It uses advanced forecasting techniques to estimate the monthly growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a given country, providing valuable information for businesses, investors, and policymakers. With its reliable data and comprehensive analysis, the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker is an essential tool for monitoring economic trends and making informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.65) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |