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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker fell to 0.4% in June 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsQuarterlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker fell to 0.4% in June 2026, released August 2026, down 0.2% from May's 0.6% reading. The reading matched the 0.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.53%. Over the past 3 months, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker averaged 0.6%, vs 0.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 57th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.4% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.32%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.5%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In August readings over the past 3 years, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Sep 7) and BoE Gov Bailey Speech (Sep 8).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker - UK
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About NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker is a widely recognized and trusted financial indicator that provides timely and accurate insights into the health of the economy. It uses advanced forecasting techniques to estimate the monthly growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a given country, providing valuable information for businesses, investors, and policymakers. With its reliable data and comprehensive analysis, the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker is an essential tool for monitoring economic trends and making informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.64) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, September 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | House Price Index YoY | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.15 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | House Price Index MoM | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.00 | Medium |
| 09:00 | UK | BBA Mortgage Rate | 6.58 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.59 | Low |
| 09:45 | UK | BBA Mortgage Rate | 6.58 | 6.58 | 6.6 | 6.59 | Low |
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 1 | 1.2 | 2.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, September 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:01 | UK | RICS House Price Balance | -30 | -28 | -30.00 | Medium | |