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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing fell to -23.3B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing fell to -23.3B in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.3B from April's -23B reading. The reading missed the -18.5B consensus by 4.8B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -2.14B. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-23.3
Actual
-18.5
Consensus
-23
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.68 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -20.2
Actual: -23.3
Error: +3.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Public Sector Net Borrowing (United Kingdom) was reported at -23.30 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -18.50 billion by 4.80 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -23.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -8.97 billion, down from the prior three at 18.10 billion. In June readings over the past 3 years, Public Sector Net Borrowing has averaged -6.57 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.68 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Jul 21) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Public Sector Net Borrowing - UK
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About Public Sector Net Borrowing — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Public Sector Net Borrowing is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the amount of money the government receives through taxes and other sources, and the amount it spends on public services and investments. It provides insight into the financial health of a country's public sector and its ability to manage its budget and debt. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact interest rates, inflation, and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -23.3 M, consensus -18.5 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -24.3 M. Before that (Mar 2026): -12.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 31.2 | -5 | -2.30 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -23.3 | -12.5 | -12.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | 2 | 20 | 7.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 8.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 4 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |