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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing fell to -24.5B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing fell to -24.5B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 7.2B from August's -17.3B reading. The reading matched the -23.9B consensus. Public Sector Net Borrowing has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Public Sector Net Borrowing averaged -10.05B, vs -21.2B in the prior 3-month window. Public Sector Net Borrowing is now the lowest in 40 months.
Latest Release
-24.5
Actual
-23.9
Consensus
-17.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.77 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -25
Actual: -24.5
Error: -0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Public Sector Net Borrowing (United Kingdom) was reported at -24.50 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -23.90 billion by 0.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -17.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -18.03 billion, ranging from -24.50 billion to -1.80 billion across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -14.87 billion, up from the prior three at -21.20 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.92 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 15.75 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.77 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Public Sector Net Borrowing - UK
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About Public Sector Net Borrowing — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Public Sector Net Borrowing is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the amount of money the government receives through taxes and other sources, and the amount it spends on public services and investments. It provides insight into the financial health of a country's public sector and its ability to manage its budget and debt. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact interest rates, inflation, and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -24.5 M, consensus -23.9 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -18.3 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -1.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.83) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |