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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing climbed to -16B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing climbed to -16B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 7.3B from May's -23.3B reading. The print exceeded the -19.8B consensus by 3.8B. Public Sector Net Borrowing has now risen for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-16
Actual
-19.8
Consensus
-23.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.38 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -21.85
Actual: -16
Error: -5.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Public Sector Net Borrowing (United Kingdom) was reported at -16.00 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -19.80 billion by 3.80 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -23.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -21.20 billion, down from the prior three at 19.51 billion. In July readings over the past 3 years, Public Sector Net Borrowing has averaged -2.97 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.38 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Public Sector Net Borrowing - UK
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About Public Sector Net Borrowing — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Public Sector Net Borrowing is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the amount of money the government receives through taxes and other sources, and the amount it spends on public services and investments. It provides insight into the financial health of a country's public sector and its ability to manage its budget and debt. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact interest rates, inflation, and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -16 M, consensus -19.8 M. Prior reading (May 2026): -23.3 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -24.3 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |