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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks fell to -14.3B in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks fell to -14.3B in February 2026, released March 2026, down 46.2B from January's 31.9B reading. The reading missed the -8.5B consensus by 5.8B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -9.01B. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-14.3
Actual
-8.5
Consensus
31.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.91 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -2.8
Actual: -14.3
Error: +11.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (United Kingdom) was reported at -14.30 billion in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of -8.50 billion by 5.80 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 31.90 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -10.06 billion, ranging from -20.68 billion to 30.40 billion across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.48 billion, up from the prior three at -18.53 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.38 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 9.23 billion). In March readings over the past 3 years, Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks has averaged -11.14 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.91 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks - UK
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About Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks is a financial indicator that measures the difference between the government's total income and its total expenditure, excluding borrowing from banks. It provides insight into the overall financial health of the public sector and its ability to manage its finances without relying on external sources. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it reflects the government's fiscal discipline and its impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual -14.3 B, consensus -8.5 B. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 30.4 B. Before that (Nov 2025): -11.65 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bearish EUR, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.