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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY climbed to 3.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY climbed to 3.1% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.1% from April's 3.0% reading. The reading missed the 3.3% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.14%. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.13
Actual: 3.1
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Price Index YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.1% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.3% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.99%, ranging from 3% to 4.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.23%, down from the prior three at 3.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.6%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Retail Price Index YoY has averaged 3.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 13) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Retail Price Index YoY - UK
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About Retail Price Index YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Retail Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by consumers over a 12-month period. This index provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary trends in the retail sector, helping businesses and policymakers make informed decisions about pricing, consumer spending, and monetary policy. It is widely used as a benchmark for tracking the purchasing power of consumers and the overall health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:01 | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY | 3.4 | 2.9 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -26.05 | -20.2 | -20.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -13.05 | -9.6 | -9.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.20 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -8.435 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |