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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY climbed to 3.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY climbed to 3.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.2% from June's 3.0% reading. The reading matched the 3.3% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.92%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Price Index YoY averaged 3.05%, vs 3.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.25
Actual: 3.2
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Price Index YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.69%, ranging from 3% to 4.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.1%, down from the prior three at 3.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.59%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.59%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Price Index YoY has averaged 3.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Price Index YoY - UK
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About Retail Price Index YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Retail Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by consumers over a 12-month period. This index provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary trends in the retail sector, helping businesses and policymakers make informed decisions about pricing, consumer spending, and monetary policy. It is widely used as a benchmark for tracking the purchasing power of consumers and the overall health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR, r=0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |