Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY climbed to 3.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY climbed to 3.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from August's 3.4% reading. The reading matched the 3.9% consensus. Retail Price Index YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Price Index YoY averaged 3.3%, vs 3.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
3.9
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.85
Actual: 3.9
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Price Index YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.9% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.9% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.51%, ranging from 3% to 4.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.5%, up from the prior three at 3.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.42%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.55%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Price Index YoY has averaged 3.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Retail Price Index YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About Retail Price Index YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Retail Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by consumers over a 12-month period. This index provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary trends in the retail sector, helping businesses and policymakers make informed decisions about pricing, consumer spending, and monetary policy. It is widely used as a benchmark for tracking the purchasing power of consumers and the overall health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.9 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |