Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY fell to 3.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom Retail Price Index YoY fell to 3.0% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 1.1% from March's 4.1% reading. The reading missed the 3.6% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.16%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Price Index YoY averaged 3.85%, vs 3.8% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3.6
Consensus
4.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.55
Actual: 3
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Price Index YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.6% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.11%, ranging from 3% to 4.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.47%, down from the prior three at 4.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.52%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.44%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Price Index YoY has averaged 3.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Retail Price Index YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About Retail Price Index YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Retail Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services purchased by consumers over a 12-month period. This index provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary trends in the retail sector, helping businesses and policymakers make informed decisions about pricing, consumer spending, and monetary policy. It is widely used as a benchmark for tracking the purchasing power of consumers and the overall health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 4.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.