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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM fell to -0.9% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM fell to -0.9% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.8% from June's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 0.4%. Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM averaged 1.15%, vs -0.2% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-0.9
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.74 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.07
Actual: -0.9
Error: +0.97
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.9% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -1% to 2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at 0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.95%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.2%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.74%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM - UK
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About Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of retail sales excluding fuel purchases from the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending trends and is used by analysts and policymakers to assess the health of the retail sector and overall economy. A positive reading indicates an increase in consumer spending, while a negative reading suggests a decrease. Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM is an important tool for investors and businesses to make informed decisions and plan for the future.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.9 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |