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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM fell to -0.7% in September 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM fell to -0.7% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.6% from August's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the -0.1% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.3%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM averaged -0.15%, vs 0.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.7
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.71 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0
Actual: -0.7
Error: +0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.7% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.13%, ranging from -1% to 2% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.33%, down from the prior three at 0.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.97%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.19%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM has averaged 0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.71%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM - UK
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About Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of retail sales excluding fuel purchases from the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending trends and is used by analysts and policymakers to assess the health of the retail sector and overall economy. A positive reading indicates an increase in consumer spending, while a negative reading suggests a decrease. Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM is an important tool for investors and businesses to make informed decisions and plan for the future.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.7 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |