Loading page content
Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY fell to 0.8% in September 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY fell to 0.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 2.1% from August's 2.9% reading. The reading missed the 1.5% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.72%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY averaged 2.5%, vs 3.7% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
1.5
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.96 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.45
Actual: 0.8
Error: +0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.82%, ranging from 0.8% to 5.5% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.93%, down from the prior three at 3.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.73%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.57%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY has averaged 2.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.96%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of retail sales, excluding sales of fuel. This indicator provides insight into the overall consumer spending trends, as it excludes the volatile fuel prices. It is a key metric for analyzing the health of the retail sector and the strength of consumer demand in an economy. A positive change in this indicator indicates an increase in consumer spending, while a negative change suggests a decrease in consumer demand. Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY is widely used by economists, investors, and policymakers to assess the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |