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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY climbed to 5.4% in June 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY climbed to 5.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.5% from May's 4.9% reading. The print exceeded the 3.2% consensus by 2.2%. Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY averaged 2.85%, vs 3.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.4
Actual
3.2
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.43
Actual: 5.4
Error: -1.98
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 5.4% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.72%, ranging from 1.1% to 5.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.7%, up from the prior three at 3.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.75%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.66%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY has averaged 2.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY - UK
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About Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of retail sales, excluding sales of fuel. This indicator provides insight into the overall consumer spending trends, as it excludes the volatile fuel prices. It is a key metric for analyzing the health of the retail sector and the strength of consumer demand in an economy. A positive change in this indicator indicates an increase in consumer spending, while a negative change suggests a decrease in consumer demand. Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY is widely used by economists, investors, and policymakers to assess the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5.4 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |