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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY fell to 2.3% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY fell to 2.3% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 2.7% from June's 5.0% reading. The reading missed the 3.3% consensus by 1.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.56%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY averaged 5.0%, vs 2.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
3.3
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.18
Actual: 2.3
Error: +1.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.3% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.82%, ranging from 1.1% to 5.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.1%, up from the prior three at 3.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.69%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.66%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY - UK
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About Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of retail sales, excluding sales of fuel. This indicator provides insight into the overall consumer spending trends, as it excludes the volatile fuel prices. It is a key metric for analyzing the health of the retail sector and the strength of consumer demand in an economy. A positive change in this indicator indicates an increase in consumer spending, while a negative change suggests a decrease in consumer demand. Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY is widely used by economists, investors, and policymakers to assess the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 5.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 4.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |