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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.3% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom Retail Sales MoM fell to -1.3% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 1.9% from March's 0.6% reading. The reading missed the -0.6% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.19%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.15%, vs 0.85% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
-1.3
Actual
-0.6
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.53 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.45
Actual: -1.3
Error: +0.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -1.3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.6% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.13%, ranging from -2.7% to 1.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, up from the prior three at -0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.23%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.05%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged -0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - UK
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About Retail Sales MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1.3 %, consensus -0.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.