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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Retail Sales YoY fell to 1.6% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Retail Sales YoY fell to 1.6% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 2.2% from June's 3.8% reading. The reading missed the 2.2% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.83%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 3.7%, vs 1.77% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
2.2
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.75 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 1.6
Error: +1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.6% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.2% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.89%, ranging from 0.2% to 4.5% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3%, up from the prior three at 2.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.43%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.6%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.75%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 16) and Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - UK
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About Retail Sales YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -26 | -19 | -4 | 11.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 27.8 | -11.8 | 8.3 | 14.53 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 67 | 83 | 70 | 75.50 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 69 | 69.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 39 | 39.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |