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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Business Inventories MoM fell to 0.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Business Inventories MoM fell to 0.3% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from April's 0.6% reading. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus. Business Inventories MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Inventories MoM averaged 0.6%, vs 0.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 73rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.33
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Inventories MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.25%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.9% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.57%, up from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Business Inventories MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Aug 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Inventories MoM - US
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About Business Inventories MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Business Inventories MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and materials held in inventory by businesses over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the economy, as changes in business inventories can indicate shifts in consumer demand and production levels. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can impact stock prices, inflation, and overall economic growth. A positive change in business inventories MoM may suggest a healthy economy, while a negative change may signal potential economic weakness.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |