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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Business Inventories MoM fell to 0.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Business Inventories MoM fell to 0.5% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.5% from March's 1.0% reading. The reading matched the 0.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.19%. Over the past 3 months, Business Inventories MoM averaged 0.4%, vs 0.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 92nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.5
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.48
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Inventories MoM (United States) was reported at 0.5% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.22%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.9% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Business Inventories MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Business Inventories MoM - US
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About Business Inventories MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Business Inventories MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and materials held in inventory by businesses over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the economy, as changes in business inventories can indicate shifts in consumer demand and production levels. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can impact stock prices, inflation, and overall economic growth. A positive change in business inventories MoM may suggest a healthy economy, while a negative change may signal potential economic weakness.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 94.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |