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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Consumer Credit Change fell to 8.28B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Consumer Credit Change fell to 8.28B in August 2026, released October 2026, down 9.46B from July's 17.74B reading. The reading missed the 15B consensus by 6.72B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 13.04B. Over the past 3 months, Consumer Credit Change averaged 16.12B, vs 22.78B in the prior 3-month window. Consumer Credit Change is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
8.28
Actual
15
Consensus
17.74
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.82 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 17.51
Actual: 8.28
Error: +9.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.88 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change (United States) was reported at 8.28 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 15.00 billion by 6.72 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 17.74 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13.34 billion, ranging from 4.23 billion to 24.05 billion across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13.50 billion, down from the prior three at 17.60 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.57 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 12.07 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Credit Change has averaged 5.86 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.82 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Consumer Credit Change - US
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About Consumer Credit Change — United States
DEFINITION
Consumer Credit Change is a financial indicator that measures the month-to-month change in the amount of credit extended to consumers by financial institutions. It provides valuable insights into consumer spending habits and overall economic activity, as credit is a major driver of consumer spending. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can signal potential shifts in consumer behavior and overall economic health. A positive change in consumer credit indicates increased borrowing and spending, while a negative change may suggest a decrease in consumer confidence and spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 8.28 B, consensus 15 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 18.06 B. Before that (Jun 2026): 14.17 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.88) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |