Consumer Credit Change - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States Consumer Credit Change
Latest Release
24.05
Actual
10
Consensus
Previous
US Consumer Credit Change for December 2025 surged to $24.05B, more than doubling the $10.00B consensus estimate and sharply rising from November’s $4.23B, signaling strong expansion in household borrowing. This dramatic increase, the largest since June 2025, reflects robust holiday spending and increased reliance on revolving and non-revolving credit. The surge may delay Fed rate cuts and heighten market caution as investors reassess credit risk and policy outlooks. Updated 2/6/26
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Consumer Credit Change - US
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Key Takeaways: US Consumer Credit Change for December 2025 surged to $24.05B, more than doubling consensus and marking the sharpest monthly gain since mid-2023. This jump signals a potential inflection in household borrowing, with implications for Fed policy, retail sentiment, and credit markets.
US Consumer Credit Change Soars in December 2025: Macro Risks and Market Signals
December 2025’s US Consumer Credit Change posted a dramatic increase, rising by $24.05 billion according to the latest Sigmanomics database release. This figure, published February 6, 2026, dwarfs November’s $4.23 billion and far exceeds the $10.00 billion consensus estimate. The outsized move, the largest since June 2023, raises urgent questions about consumer resilience, credit quality, and the broader economic outlook.
December’s $24.05B surge in consumer credit reflects a sharp rebound from November’s $4.23B, and is well above the 12-month average of $9.67B. The jump is driven by a combination of robust holiday spending, increased reliance on revolving credit, and a rebound in auto and student loans. Key contributors this month include:
The Federal Reserve has maintained a restrictive policy stance, with the Fed Funds rate at 5.25–5.50%. December’s credit expansion, however, suggests households are undeterred by higher borrowing costs. This could complicate the Fed’s inflation fight if increased credit fuels demand-side pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US 2-year yields rose 6bps, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% on the print. The sharp credit expansion triggered a risk-off move in rates and equities, as investors reassessed the likelihood of near-term Fed cuts. The dollar (USD) strengthened modestly, reflecting expectations of tighter-for-longer policy.
Macro context
Consumer credit is a key barometer of household confidence and financial health. December’s $24.05B print is the highest since June 2023 ($17.87B), and marks a reversal from the subdued readings of October ($0.36B) and November ($4.23B). The 12-month average stands at $9.67B, highlighting the outsized nature of the latest figure.
December 2025: $24.05B
November 2025: $4.23B
October 2025: $0.36B
June 2025: $17.87B
12-month average: $9.67B
December 2024 (YoY): $11.12B (est.)
Fiscal & external factors
Fiscal policy remained neutral in Q4 2025, with no major stimulus or tax changes. However, the resumption of student loan repayments and elevated energy prices in late 2025 may have contributed to increased borrowing. Geopolitical risks—particularly in energy markets—have kept consumer sentiment volatile.
Structural & long-run trends
US household debt-to-income ratios remain below pre-pandemic peaks, but the rapid acceleration in credit use warrants caution. Credit card delinquencies have ticked up to 3.2% (Q4 2025), the highest since 2012, suggesting some stress beneath the surface.
December’s $24.05B print is nearly six times November’s $4.23B and more than double the 12-month average of $9.67B. The chart below shows a pronounced spike, reversing the two-month lull seen in October and November. The last comparable surge was June 2025’s $17.87B, but December’s figure stands out as the most abrupt MoM acceleration in over two years.
Historically, such sharp increases have coincided with periods of strong retail activity or, less favorably, with households turning to credit to offset stagnant real incomes. The December 2025 spike follows a 0.7% MoM rise in retail sales and comes amid persistent inflationary pressures, suggesting both cyclical and structural drivers are at play.
Consumer Credit Change (B USD)
|
25| *
20| * *
15|* *
10| *
5| *
0|*
+-------------------------
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
What This Chart Tells Us: December’s spike breaks a two-month stagnation, signaling renewed consumer borrowing appetite. This could foreshadow stronger Q1 2026 consumption, but also raises red flags on household leverage and credit quality.
Drivers this month
Holiday retail spending: +0.7% MoM
Credit card balances: +$13.2B (est.)
Auto loan originations: +$5.1B (est.)
Policy pulse
With inflation still above target and labor markets tight, the Fed is likely to interpret this data as a reason for caution on rate cuts. The surge in credit may delay the first policy easing to mid-2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US 2-year yields rose 6bps, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% on the print. The dollar (USD) firmed, while credit spreads widened modestly as investors priced in higher-for-longer rates and potential credit risk.
Base (50%): Credit growth moderates in Q1, Fed delays cuts to June 2026, consumer spending slows but avoids contraction. Credit quality deteriorates modestly.
Upside risks include further labor market gains and a soft landing for inflation. Downside risks center on rising delinquencies, tighter lending standards, and external shocks (e.g., energy prices, geopolitics).
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US 2-year yields rose 6bps, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% on the print. Credit-sensitive stocks and high-yield bonds underperformed, while the USD gained against major peers.
Summary & implications
December 2025’s $24.05B consumer credit surge is a double-edged sword: it signals consumer confidence and spending power, but also raises concerns about leverage and credit quality. The outsized move, far above the $9.67B 12-month average, will keep policymakers and investors on alert for signs of stress or overheating. The next few months will be critical in determining whether this is a one-off spike or the start of a new trend in US household borrowing.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Credit Change
Movements in US consumer credit have a direct impact on financial markets, especially those sensitive to household spending, interest rates, and credit risk. The following symbols are closely watched for their historical correlation with consumer credit trends:
SPY – S&P 500 ETF: Tracks US equities, often moves with consumer sentiment and credit cycles.
DFS – Discover Financial: Credit card lender, highly sensitive to consumer borrowing and delinquencies.
USDJPY – US Dollar/Japanese Yen: Moves with US rate expectations and risk sentiment.
EURUSD – Euro/US Dollar: Reacts to US macro data and Fed policy shifts.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin/US Dollar: Correlates with risk appetite and liquidity conditions.
Insight Box:
Year
Consumer Credit Change (B USD)
SPY Price (Jan Close)
2020
Avg: 8.2
322
2021
Avg: 13.5
375
2022
Avg: 15.1
451
2023
Avg: 10.7
410
2024
Avg: 9.8
478
2025
Avg: 9.7
505
Since 2020, SPY has generally tracked the direction of consumer credit growth, with periods of rapid credit expansion often coinciding with equity rallies. The December 2025 spike, however, may test this relationship if credit quality concerns mount.
FAQ
Q: What is the US Consumer Credit Change for December 2025?
A: December 2025’s US Consumer Credit Change was $24.05B, a sharp increase from November’s $4.23B and the highest since June 2023.
Q: Why did consumer credit surge in December 2025?
A: The surge was driven by strong holiday spending, increased credit card use, and a rebound in auto and student loans, despite high interest rates.
Q: How does this affect markets and policy?
A: The jump may delay Fed rate cuts, pressure credit-sensitive stocks, and strengthen the USD as investors reassess risk and policy outlooks.
Bottom line: December’s consumer credit surge is a pivotal signal for the US economy—fueling optimism for growth, but also flashing warnings on leverage and credit risk.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 2/6/26
Sigmanomics database, US Consumer Credit Change, February 2026 release.
US Federal Reserve, G.19 Consumer Credit Statistical Release.
US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade Report.
Economic Calendar - US Events
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.4
3
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.40
High
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
5.27
-2.8
-2
-2.64
Medium
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-145
-173
-150
-140.75
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-145
-173
-144.5
-141.25
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
800
710
710.00
High
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.69
0.69
Medium
15:00
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
High
13:30
US
CPI
324.05
324.12
323.8
323.61
High
13:30
US
CPI s.a
326.03
325.031
325.7
325.87
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.60
High
13:30
US
Building Permits
1.411
1.415
1.412
2.81
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99.5
99
99.5
99.65
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn
13.28
1.55
13.1
13.19
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat
1.68
2.13
1.65
1.67
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy
3.29
0.32
3.28
3.29
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.75
Medium
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.75
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
54
52.9
53.5
53.72
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
52.4
50.4
50.5
50.67
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.13
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.17
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
54.6
54.2
54.90
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.28
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.63
Medium
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.60
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts
1.246
1.306
1.33
1.29
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-4.6
1.2
0.8
-1.90
Medium
13:30
US
Building Permits
6.4
-2.3
0.8
2.20
Medium
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
13
6
-10
-4.75
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.53
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-8
-2
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
37
50
64
63.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
50
56
60
61.00
High
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
4.23
9.24
10
8.23
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
4.23
9.24
10.1
7.98
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
2.7
2.7
3.05
Medium
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.28
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-119
-38
-114
-112.00
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.30
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
3
3.95
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
208
200
210
204.67
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1914
1858
1900
1898.00
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
211.75
219
210.75
209.63
High
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
1
-0.45
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-29.4
-48.1
-58.9
-48.90
Medium
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
10:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
7.702
5.845
2.9
4.65
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.831
-1.934
1.1
0.57
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
5.594
4.977
2.2
3.20
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.146
7.449
7.6
7.60
High
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.25
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.161
2.973
2.99
3.03
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
54.4
52.6
52.2
53.30
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.6
55.25
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
-1.3
0.2
-1.2
-1.25
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
52
48.9
49
50.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
64.3
65.4
64.9
64.60
High
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
54.4
52.6
52.3
53.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
56
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
52
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
64.3
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.50
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
41
-29
47
44.00
High
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-2.8
1.7
1.2
0.56
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.7
54.2
53
52.70
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.5
54.1
52.9
52.52
Low
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
16
15.6
15.7
15.85
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
2.7
3
3
3.35
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
-
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
-
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
-
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
-
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
-
52.6
52
53.05
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44.9
44
44.1
44.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.7
47.4
47.2
47.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58.5
59
58.75
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.2
48.3
48.10
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
51.8
51.75
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.6
4.7
4.72
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
69
6
5.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
-
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-
-5
-10
-10.75
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-
-5
-6
-0.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
64
12
13.00
High
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-38
-166
-53
-51.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.934
0.405
-0.9
-1.43
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
5.845
2.862
1.9
3.65
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
4.977
0.202
2.2
3.20
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
-
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1866
1913
1915
1913.00
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
218.75
217
224.25
223.13
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
199
215
220
214.67
High
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
0.1
-2.5
-4
-1.95
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-3.3
-2.3
-2
-2.65
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
43.5
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
1.8
0.9
1.30
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.20
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
436.7
435.2
435.8
436.25
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
Monday, December 29, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-166
-167
-168
-166.00
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.9
-10.4
-2.5
-6.70
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.202
1.712
0.4
1.40
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.862
4.808
1.1
2.85
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.405
-1.274
-2.4
-2.93
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
3.3
2.4
1
2.15
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
2.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.00
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0.5
-0.4
-0.30
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
217.5
219
217.88
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
214
224
223
217.67
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1923
1885
1900
1898.00
High
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.85
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3
3.5
3.5
3.85
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-11
-14
-3
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.71
0.71
High
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-6
-4
1
-2.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-7
-15
-7
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
89.1
92.9
91
90.05
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.1
0.9
1.40
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
-
1.5
1
1.50
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2.2
1.9
1.1
1.65
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.4
0
-0.2
-0.30
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
1.6
1.1
1.65
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
76
75.9
75.90
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.00
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
-0.1
-0.20
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
75.9
77.2
77.20
Low
13:55
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.6
0.3
0.25
Low
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.20
Medium
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
2.8
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
4.4
0.2
1
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
4.6
7.5
7.4
6.00
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
-1.5
0.1
-0.8
-1.15
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.25
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
-1.85
High
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.5
1.1
-0.1
0.20
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
54.6
51
55
55.70
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.07
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.13
4.11
4.2
4.17
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
0.5
1.5
-4.8
-2.15
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.4
51.1
50.7
50.87
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
52.9
51
53.4
53.62
High
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.18
Medium
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
US
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
17.5
173.2
122.7
70.10
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
1
8
6
3.50
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-3
18
11
4.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-167
-177
-169
-167.00
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1897
1830
1930
1928.00
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.2
-1.7
3
-3.60
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
217.5
217
218.5
217.38
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
224
237
225
219.67
High
13:30
US
Current Account
-
-251.3
-250
-250.00
Medium
13:30
US
CPI
324.12
324.8
325.13
324.94
High
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3
3
2.88
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3
3.1
3.00
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.85
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
3.85
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-1.63
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
2.20
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-2.84
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.85
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.20
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.60
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
51.95
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.63
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.10
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
52.95
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.90
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.28
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.50
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
2.25
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.18
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.82
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
51.00
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
44.25
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.43
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.35
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
3.10
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.45
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.35
High
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
39
38
38
38.50
Medium
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
-3.9
18.7
10
3.05
High
Friday, December 12, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
414
413
415
415.75
Low
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-177
-12
-165
-163.00
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.20
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
-
2.9
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
236
192
220
214.67
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1838
1937
1950
1948.00
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
214.75
218
216.88
High
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-52.8
-59.3
-63.3
-53.30
Medium
13:30
US
Exports
289.3
280.9
281
285.15
Medium
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-173
-284
-205
-195.75
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-173
-284
-186.5
-183.25
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.812
0.574
-2.3
-2.83
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.502
2.059
1.9
2.90
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
6.397
4.518
2.8
4.55
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost Index QoQ
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.85
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.70
Medium
Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-4.8
-2.48
-1.7
-2.34
Medium
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.128
3.091
3.15
3.19
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.658
7.227
7.2
7.20
High
15:00
US
Leading Index MoM
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.30
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99
98.2
98.4
98.55
Low
Monday, December 8, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.17
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
Friday, December 5, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
9.18
11.01
10.5
8.73
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
9.18
11.01
11.8
9.68
Medium
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
413
407
409
409.75
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.8
3.8
4.15
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.8
3.8
4.15
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
51
51.2
51.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
53.3
51
52
52.22
High
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.37
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.33
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.7
51.1
51.3
51.47
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.38
Medium
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Income MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.35
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.30
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.85
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US Consumer Credit Change Surges Sharply in December 2025 December 2025 US Consumer Credit Change Overview Consumer Credit Change measures the monthly net increase or decrease in non-mortgage credit extended to consumers, reflecting borrowing trends in credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. For December 2025, the US Consumer Credit Change rose by $24.05 billion, a significant jump from November’s $4.23 billion and more than double the consensus estimate of $10 billion. This sharp increase signals a renewed appetite for borrowing despite elevated interest rates and ongoing inflationary pressures. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, “The surge in US Consumer Credit Change suggests households remain willing to take on debt, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path toward easing monetary policy.” The data highlights growing consumer confidence but also raises concerns about rising leverage and potential credit risk in the US economy going forward.
December’s $24.05B print is nearly six times November’s $4.23B and more than double the 12-month average of $9.67B. The chart below shows a pronounced spike, reversing the two-month lull seen in October and November. The last comparable surge was June 2025’s $17.87B, but December’s figure stands out as the most abrupt MoM acceleration in over two years.
Historically, such sharp increases have coincided with periods of strong retail activity or, less favorably, with households turning to credit to offset stagnant real incomes. The December 2025 spike follows a 0.7% MoM rise in retail sales and comes amid persistent inflationary pressures, suggesting both cyclical and structural drivers are at play.