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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Consumer Credit Change climbed to 18.06B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Consumer Credit Change climbed to 18.06B in July 2026, released September 2026, up 3.5B from June's 14.56B reading. The print exceeded the 11.7B consensus by 6.36B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 11.96B. The reading is in the 70th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
18.06
Actual
11.7
Consensus
14.56
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.82 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 13.54
Actual: 18.06
Error: -4.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.94 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Credit Change (United States) was reported at 18.06 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 11.70 billion by 6.36 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 14.56 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12.35 billion, ranging from 0.36 billion to 24.05 billion across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 17.64 billion, up from the prior three at 12.11 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.75 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 11.67 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Consumer Credit Change has averaged 19.84 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.82 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Consumer Credit Change - US
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About Consumer Credit Change — United States
DEFINITION
Consumer Credit Change is a financial indicator that measures the month-to-month change in the amount of credit extended to consumers by financial institutions. It provides valuable insights into consumer spending habits and overall economic activity, as credit is a major driver of consumer spending. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can signal potential shifts in consumer behavior and overall economic health. A positive change in consumer credit indicates increased borrowing and spending, while a negative change may suggest a decrease in consumer confidence and spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 18.06 B, consensus 11.7 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 14.17 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 20.7 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.94) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |