Consumer Credit Change - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States Consumer Credit Change
Latest Release
24.05
Actual
10
Consensus
Previous
US Consumer Credit Change for December 2025 surged to $24.05B, more than doubling the $10.00B consensus estimate and sharply rising from November’s $4.23B, signaling strong expansion in household borrowing. This dramatic increase, the largest since June 2025, reflects robust holiday spending and increased reliance on revolving and non-revolving credit. The surge may delay Fed rate cuts and heighten market caution as investors reassess credit risk and policy outlooks. Updated 2/6/26
Consumer Credit Change - US
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Key Takeaways: US Consumer Credit Change for December 2025 surged to $24.05B, more than doubling consensus and marking the sharpest monthly gain since mid-2023. This jump signals a potential inflection in household borrowing, with implications for Fed policy, retail sentiment, and credit markets.
US Consumer Credit Change Soars in December 2025: Macro Risks and Market Signals
December 2025’s US Consumer Credit Change posted a dramatic increase, rising by $24.05 billion according to the latest Sigmanomics database release. This figure, published February 6, 2026, dwarfs November’s $4.23 billion and far exceeds the $10.00 billion consensus estimate. The outsized move, the largest since June 2023, raises urgent questions about consumer resilience, credit quality, and the broader economic outlook.
December’s $24.05B surge in consumer credit reflects a sharp rebound from November’s $4.23B, and is well above the 12-month average of $9.67B. The jump is driven by a combination of robust holiday spending, increased reliance on revolving credit, and a rebound in auto and student loans. Key contributors this month include:
The Federal Reserve has maintained a restrictive policy stance, with the Fed Funds rate at 5.25–5.50%. December’s credit expansion, however, suggests households are undeterred by higher borrowing costs. This could complicate the Fed’s inflation fight if increased credit fuels demand-side pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US 2-year yields rose 6bps, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% on the print. The sharp credit expansion triggered a risk-off move in rates and equities, as investors reassessed the likelihood of near-term Fed cuts. The dollar (USD) strengthened modestly, reflecting expectations of tighter-for-longer policy.
Macro context
Consumer credit is a key barometer of household confidence and financial health. December’s $24.05B print is the highest since June 2023 ($17.87B), and marks a reversal from the subdued readings of October ($0.36B) and November ($4.23B). The 12-month average stands at $9.67B, highlighting the outsized nature of the latest figure.
December 2025: $24.05B
November 2025: $4.23B
October 2025: $0.36B
June 2025: $17.87B
12-month average: $9.67B
December 2024 (YoY): $11.12B (est.)
Fiscal & external factors
Fiscal policy remained neutral in Q4 2025, with no major stimulus or tax changes. However, the resumption of student loan repayments and elevated energy prices in late 2025 may have contributed to increased borrowing. Geopolitical risks—particularly in energy markets—have kept consumer sentiment volatile.
Structural & long-run trends
US household debt-to-income ratios remain below pre-pandemic peaks, but the rapid acceleration in credit use warrants caution. Credit card delinquencies have ticked up to 3.2% (Q4 2025), the highest since 2012, suggesting some stress beneath the surface.
December’s $24.05B print is nearly six times November’s $4.23B and more than double the 12-month average of $9.67B. The chart below shows a pronounced spike, reversing the two-month lull seen in October and November. The last comparable surge was June 2025’s $17.87B, but December’s figure stands out as the most abrupt MoM acceleration in over two years.
Historically, such sharp increases have coincided with periods of strong retail activity or, less favorably, with households turning to credit to offset stagnant real incomes. The December 2025 spike follows a 0.7% MoM rise in retail sales and comes amid persistent inflationary pressures, suggesting both cyclical and structural drivers are at play.
Consumer Credit Change (B USD)
|
25| *
20| * *
15|* *
10| *
5| *
0|*
+-------------------------
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
What This Chart Tells Us: December’s spike breaks a two-month stagnation, signaling renewed consumer borrowing appetite. This could foreshadow stronger Q1 2026 consumption, but also raises red flags on household leverage and credit quality.
Drivers this month
Holiday retail spending: +0.7% MoM
Credit card balances: +$13.2B (est.)
Auto loan originations: +$5.1B (est.)
Policy pulse
With inflation still above target and labor markets tight, the Fed is likely to interpret this data as a reason for caution on rate cuts. The surge in credit may delay the first policy easing to mid-2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US 2-year yields rose 6bps, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% on the print. The dollar (USD) firmed, while credit spreads widened modestly as investors priced in higher-for-longer rates and potential credit risk.
Base (50%): Credit growth moderates in Q1, Fed delays cuts to June 2026, consumer spending slows but avoids contraction. Credit quality deteriorates modestly.
Upside risks include further labor market gains and a soft landing for inflation. Downside risks center on rising delinquencies, tighter lending standards, and external shocks (e.g., energy prices, geopolitics).
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US 2-year yields rose 6bps, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3% on the print. Credit-sensitive stocks and high-yield bonds underperformed, while the USD gained against major peers.
Summary & implications
December 2025’s $24.05B consumer credit surge is a double-edged sword: it signals consumer confidence and spending power, but also raises concerns about leverage and credit quality. The outsized move, far above the $9.67B 12-month average, will keep policymakers and investors on alert for signs of stress or overheating. The next few months will be critical in determining whether this is a one-off spike or the start of a new trend in US household borrowing.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Credit Change
Movements in US consumer credit have a direct impact on financial markets, especially those sensitive to household spending, interest rates, and credit risk. The following symbols are closely watched for their historical correlation with consumer credit trends:
SPY – S&P 500 ETF: Tracks US equities, often moves with consumer sentiment and credit cycles.
DFS – Discover Financial: Credit card lender, highly sensitive to consumer borrowing and delinquencies.
USDJPY – US Dollar/Japanese Yen: Moves with US rate expectations and risk sentiment.
EURUSD – Euro/US Dollar: Reacts to US macro data and Fed policy shifts.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin/US Dollar: Correlates with risk appetite and liquidity conditions.
Insight Box:
Year
Consumer Credit Change (B USD)
SPY Price (Jan Close)
2020
Avg: 8.2
322
2021
Avg: 13.5
375
2022
Avg: 15.1
451
2023
Avg: 10.7
410
2024
Avg: 9.8
478
2025
Avg: 9.7
505
Since 2020, SPY has generally tracked the direction of consumer credit growth, with periods of rapid credit expansion often coinciding with equity rallies. The December 2025 spike, however, may test this relationship if credit quality concerns mount.
FAQ
Q: What is the US Consumer Credit Change for December 2025?
A: December 2025’s US Consumer Credit Change was $24.05B, a sharp increase from November’s $4.23B and the highest since June 2023.
Q: Why did consumer credit surge in December 2025?
A: The surge was driven by strong holiday spending, increased credit card use, and a rebound in auto and student loans, despite high interest rates.
Q: How does this affect markets and policy?
A: The jump may delay Fed rate cuts, pressure credit-sensitive stocks, and strengthen the USD as investors reassess risk and policy outlooks.
Bottom line: December’s consumer credit surge is a pivotal signal for the US economy—fueling optimism for growth, but also flashing warnings on leverage and credit risk.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 2/6/26
Sigmanomics database, US Consumer Credit Change, February 2026 release.
US Federal Reserve, G.19 Consumer Credit Statistical Release.
US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade Report.
Economic Calendar - US Events
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
3.65
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-0.82
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
1.61
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-4.75
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.43
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.18
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.08
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.70
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
52.02
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.73
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.40
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
53.23
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.92
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
4.50
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.20
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.80
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.23
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-4.50
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
70.75
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
59.75
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.48
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.30
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
3.00
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.18
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.20
High
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
39
38
38
38.50
Medium
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
-3.9
18.7
10
3.05
High
Friday, December 12, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
414
413
415
415.67
Low
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-177
-12
-165
-167.67
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
-
2.9
2.9
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
236
192
220
216.33
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1838
1937
1950
1925.33
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
214.75
218
215.88
High
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-52.8
-59.3
-63.3
-60.32
Medium
13:30
US
Exports
289.3
280.9
281
283.77
Medium
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-173
-284
-205
-212.25
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-173
-284
-186.5
-198.28
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.812
0.574
-2.3
-2.02
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.502
2.059
1.9
2.31
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
6.397
4.518
2.8
4.35
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost Index QoQ
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.85
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.70
Medium
Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-4.8
-2.48
-1.7
-4.25
Medium
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.128
3.091
3.15
3.14
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.658
7.227
7.2
7.43
High
15:00
US
Leading Index MoM
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.30
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99
98.2
98.4
98.70
Low
Monday, December 8, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.15
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
Friday, December 5, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
9.18
11.01
10.5
9.84
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
9.18
11.01
11.8
10.49
Medium
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
413
407
409
409.67
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.8
3.8
3.73
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.8
3.8
3.73
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
51
51.2
52.65
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
53.3
51
52
52.45
High
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.28
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.22
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.7
51.1
51.3
50.85
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.30
Medium
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Income MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.35
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.30
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.85
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, December 4, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-12
-11
-18
-20.67
Low
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
0.2
1.3
0.5
0.42
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
191
218
220
216.33
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
214.75
224.25
225
222.88
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1939
1943
1960
1935.33
High
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
71.321
153.074
98
84.66
Low
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:10
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.059
1.147
0.7
1.11
Low
16:10
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.518
2.513
1.5
3.05
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.059
1.147
0.7
1.11
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.574
2.774
-0.8
-0.52
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.518
2.513
1.5
3.05
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
48.9
48.2
48
48.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
52.6
52.4
52.1
52.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
52.9
56.2
56.4
54.65
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
65.4
70
70.3
67.85
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
54.5
54.3
54.5
54.50
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
65.4
70
68
66.70
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
52.6
52.4
52
52.30
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
54.1
54.8
55
54.73
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
54.2
54.6
54.8
54.60
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
1.6
0.84
1.6
1.60
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
75.9
77.3
76.60
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.10
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.5
1
1.3
1.40
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
3.8
3.2
4.1
3.95
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.45
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
-32
47
10
-11.00
High
Tuesday, December 2, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
15.6
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
15.6
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.9
43.9
44.1
46.00
Low
15:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
-
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
Monday, December 1, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58
59.5
59.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
48.2
48.7
48.6
48.40
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.4
49.4
49.7
48.55
Low
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44
46
47
45.50
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.2
52.5
51.9
51.92
High
Thursday, November 27, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
Low
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.9
4
4
3.93
Medium
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-11
-14
-1
-3.67
Low
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
4
4
3.93
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.147
0.171
0.6
1.01
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.513
2.327
0.7
2.25
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
2.774
-3.426
-0.5
-0.22
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Income MoM
-
0.4
0.4
0.45
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
-
0.2
1
1.00
Medium
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
0.1
1.9
1.9
1.00
High
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
-
2.5
2.2
2.20
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.1
2.3
2.30
Low
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
0.5
3
0.3
0.40
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
216
222
225
221.33
High
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-
3.8
1
1.00
High
13:30
US
PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
13:30
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
-
2.1
2.5
2.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1960
1953
1975
1950.33
High
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.2
0.20
High
13:30
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0
-0.2
-0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
223.75
224.75
225
222.88
High
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
-
7.5
7.4
7.40
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.6
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.9
0.9
0.1
0.50
Low
13:30
US
Building Permits
-
1.33
1.34
1.34
High
Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:30
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-284
198
-223
-230.25
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-284
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-2.3
-9.4
-6
-4.15
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
-2.5
-6.4
-3
-2.75
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-4
4
5
0.50
Low
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
1.9
0.1
0.5
1.20
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-14
4
6
-4.00
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-15
-4
-2
-8.50
Low
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-0.4
-0.9
-2.4
-1.40
Medium
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
88.7
95.5
93.4
91.05
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0.1
0.3
0.17
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
77.4
77.3
76.60
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0
0.4
0.3
0.15
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.40
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
435.4
435.6
436.6
436.00
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
2.4
1.5
1.60
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.5
-0.6
-0.4
-0.45
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.65
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.30
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.80
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.15
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index
149.779
149.316
149.4
149.59
Low
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
4.3
5
3.9
4.20
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.38
High
Monday, November 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.4
-5
-1
-5.70
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
77.4
77.3
76.60
Low
13:30
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
-
-0.12
-0.4
-0.40
Medium
Friday, November 21, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
419
417
418
418.67
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
51.1
58.6
52.3
51.85
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
51
53.6
50.5
50.95
High
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.53
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
51
50.3
49
50.45
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.58
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.50
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0
0.1
-0.2
-0.05
Low
15:00
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
55
54.8
54
54.23
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
55
54.8
54.6
54.33
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.9
52.5
52
51.92
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
54.8
54.6
53.8
54.00
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.9
52.5
51.9
51.92
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
54.8
54.6
54.5
54.30
Medium
13:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
18
15
12
15.00
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
8
6
4
6.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-14
45
-12
-14.67
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.05
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.1
4.05
4.08
4.09
High
15:00
US
Leading Index MoM
-
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
15:00
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
234.75
237.75
239
236.88
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1946
1964
1967
1942.33
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-1.7
-12.8
-3.1
-2.40
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.38
High
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8
8.1
8.1
8.05
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
97
18
62
76.75
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.3
62.3
62.35
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
119
-4
50
70.75
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-6
-15
-8
-7.50
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
22
-22
-10
-2.50
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.20
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.70
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.23
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
12:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
235
224
227
223.33
High
12:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1929
1921
1930
1905.33
High
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.3
-235.08
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.327
-0.945
-0.2
1.35
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.426
6.413
-0.6
-0.32
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.171
-0.637
-1.2
-0.79
Low
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4.2
4
4
3.93
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-
-8.5
1
1.00
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-59.6
-78.2
-61
-58.02
Medium
13:30
US
Imports
340.4
358.8
341
340.70
Medium
13:30
US
Exports
280.8
280.6
278
280.77
Medium
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-
198
50
42.75
Medium
18:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-
198
50
42.75
Medium
18:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.3
-235.08
Medium
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
38
37
37
37.50
Medium
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-
0.6
-0.5
-0.45
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
1.4
-1.3
1.4
1.32
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
0.9
1.6
1.60
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0.3
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
-
0.3
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-215.3
-227.08
Medium
10:00
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1947
1916
1930
1905.33
High
10:00
US
Initial Jobless Claims
232
219
223
219.33
High
10:00
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
58
237.75
247
244.88
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US Consumer Credit Change Surges Sharply in December 2025 December 2025 US Consumer Credit Change Overview Consumer Credit Change measures the monthly net increase or decrease in non-mortgage credit extended to consumers, reflecting borrowing trends in credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. For December 2025, the US Consumer Credit Change rose by $24.05 billion, a significant jump from November’s $4.23 billion and more than double the consensus estimate of $10 billion. This sharp increase signals a renewed appetite for borrowing despite elevated interest rates and ongoing inflationary pressures. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, “The surge in US Consumer Credit Change suggests households remain willing to take on debt, which could complicate the Federal Reserve’s path toward easing monetary policy.” The data highlights growing consumer confidence but also raises concerns about rising leverage and potential credit risk in the US economy going forward.
December’s $24.05B print is nearly six times November’s $4.23B and more than double the 12-month average of $9.67B. The chart below shows a pronounced spike, reversing the two-month lull seen in October and November. The last comparable surge was June 2025’s $17.87B, but December’s figure stands out as the most abrupt MoM acceleration in over two years.
Historically, such sharp increases have coincided with periods of strong retail activity or, less favorably, with households turning to credit to offset stagnant real incomes. The December 2025 spike follows a 0.7% MoM rise in retail sales and comes amid persistent inflationary pressures, suggesting both cyclical and structural drivers are at play.