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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index MoM climbed to 0.2% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Core PCE Price Index MoM climbed to 0.2% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.1% from July's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.27%. Over the past 3 months, Core PCE Price Index MoM averaged 0.15%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.27
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.2% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.25%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.09%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index MoM has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 14) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Core PCE Price Index MoM - US
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About Core PCE Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Core PCE price index MoM is a key economic indicator that measures the monthly change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy prices. This index is closely monitored by financial analysts and policymakers as it provides insight into the overall level of inflation in the economy. A higher Core PCE price index MoM indicates an increase in consumer prices, while a lower index suggests a decrease in prices. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation compared to other price indexes, making it an important tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.48) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.9 | 98.7 | 98 | 97.95 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.5 | -3.2 | -0.3 | 0.60 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.99 | 3.93 | 3.95 | 3.97 | High |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.05 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 37.8 | 28.4 | 42.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 10.3 | 10.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1716 | 1710 | 1702.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 195.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198 | 199 | 198.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.45 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |