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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index MoM held to 0.3% in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Core PCE Price Index MoM held to 0.3% in May 2026, released June 2026. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.28%. Over the past 3 months, Core PCE Price Index MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 64th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from 0.2% to 0.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.08%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.09%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index MoM has averaged 0.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Core PCE Price Index MoM - US
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About Core PCE Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Core PCE price index MoM is a key economic indicator that measures the monthly change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy prices. This index is closely monitored by financial analysts and policymakers as it provides insight into the overall level of inflation in the economy. A higher Core PCE price index MoM indicates an increase in consumer prices, while a lower index suggests a decrease in prices. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation compared to other price indexes, making it an important tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -293 | -132.8 | -126.40 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -293 | -135.8 | -127.90 | Medium |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 95.6 | 94.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 334 | 334.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 334.71 | 334.71 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 103.1 | 128 | 139.00 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |