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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index MoM fell to 0.3% in March 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Core PCE Price Index MoM fell to 0.3% in March 2026, released April 2026, down 0.1% from February's 0.4% reading. The reading matched the 0.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.28%. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in April 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.26%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.09%). In March readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index MoM has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for May 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Core PCE Price Index MoM - US
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About Core PCE Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Core PCE price index MoM is a key economic indicator that measures the monthly change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy prices. This index is closely monitored by financial analysts and policymakers as it provides insight into the overall level of inflation in the economy. A higher Core PCE price index MoM indicates an increase in consumer prices, while a lower index suggests a decrease in prices. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation compared to other price indexes, making it an important tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.54) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.