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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core PCE Price Index MoM climbed to 0.2% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Core PCE Price Index MoM climbed to 0.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1% from June's 0.1% reading. The reading matched the 0.2% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.28%. Over the past 3 months, Core PCE Price Index MoM averaged 0.2%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.17
Actual: 0.2
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core PCE Price Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.2% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.2% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.26%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.2%, down from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.1%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.1%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Core PCE Price Index MoM has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago PMI (Aug 28) and Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Core PCE Price Index MoM - US
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About Core PCE Price Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Core PCE price index MoM is a key economic indicator that measures the monthly change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding volatile food and energy prices. This index is closely monitored by financial analysts and policymakers as it provides insight into the overall level of inflation in the economy. A higher Core PCE price index MoM indicates an increase in consumer prices, while a lower index suggests a decrease in prices. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation compared to other price indexes, making it an important tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 204.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 205.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.92 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.27 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.38 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1784.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.88 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 57 | 63.10 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51 | 55.2 | 51 | 51.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 50.6 | 55.4 | 50.6 | 50.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.8 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low | |