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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 1.3 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 1.3 in July 2026, up 1.3 from June's 0 reading. The print exceeded the -1 consensus by 2.3. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -3.25. Over the past 3 months, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 0.2, vs -0.77 in the prior 3-month window. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
-1
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.01
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -1.15
Actual: 1.3
Error: -2.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 1.30 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.00 by 2.30. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.30, ranging from -10.90 to 1.30 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.57, up from the prior three at -0.40. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.42) is lower than the prior year (σ 11.80). In July readings over the past 3 years, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged -5.10.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.01.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. It is based on a monthly survey of manufacturers and provides valuable insights into the health and trends of the regional economy. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic climate in the Dallas region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.3, consensus -1. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |