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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 13.4 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 13.4 in October 2026, up 3.6 from September's 9.8 reading. The print exceeded the 7 consensus by 6.4. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.56. Over the past 3 months, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 10.7, vs 0.57 in the prior 3-month window. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
13.4
Actual
7
Consensus
9.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.81
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 11.93
Actual: 13.4
Error: -1.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 13.40 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 7.00 by 6.40. The reading rose from the previous value of 9.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.27, ranging from -10.90 to 13.40 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 11.60, up from the prior three at 0.57. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.52) is lower than the prior year (σ 11.85). In October readings over the past 3 years, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 1.80.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CHF (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.81.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. It is based on a monthly survey of manufacturers and provides valuable insights into the health and trends of the regional economy. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic climate in the Dallas region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 13.4, consensus 7. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 9.8. Before that (Aug 2026): 11.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bullish USD, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77.5 | 77.90 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.1 | 7.08 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -107.6 | -107.75 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |