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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 11.6 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 11.6 in August 2026, up 10.3 from July's 1.3 reading. The print exceeded the 0.7 consensus by 10.9. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 0.65, vs -0.7 in the prior 3-month window. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
11.6
Actual
0.7
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.01
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.77
Actual: 11.6
Error: -10.82
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 11.60 in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.70 by 10.90. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.08, ranging from -10.90 to 11.60 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.30, up from the prior three at 0.13. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.16) is lower than the prior year (σ 11.90). In August readings over the past 3 years, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 0.03.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.01.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Inventories MoM (Sep 16) and NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. It is based on a monthly survey of manufacturers and provides valuable insights into the health and trends of the regional economy. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic climate in the Dallas region.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 11.6, consensus 0.7. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.3. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.66) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |