Durable Goods Orders MOM - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States Durable Goods Orders MoM
Latest Release
-1.4
Actual
-3.4
Consensus
0.4
Previous
US Durable Goods Orders MoM fell -1.40% in January 2026, beating the -3.40% consensus estimate and reversing December’s 5.30% surge. January’s decline marks the fourth negative reading in seven months, highlighting ongoing volatility in the manufacturing sector. Equity futures dipped modestly while bond yields edged lower as markets digest the mixed signals ahead of upcoming industrial production and ISM reports. Updated 2/18/26
Durable Goods Orders MOM - US
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Key Takeaways: US Durable Goods Orders fell 1.4% in January, reversing December’s 5.3% surge. The drop was less severe than consensus estimates, with transportation and machinery orders as primary drags. Volatility persists after sharp swings in 2025.
US Durable Goods Orders MoM: January 2026 Release
Durable goods orders in the United States declined in January, following a strong rebound in December. The latest data highlight ongoing volatility in the manufacturing sector as businesses recalibrate amid shifting demand and supply chain adjustments.
January’s -1.4% reading stands well below the Federal Reserve’s preferred trajectory for steady manufacturing growth. The figure, however, is an improvement over the consensus estimate of -3.4%.
Market lens
Equity futures dipped modestly on the release, reflecting concerns about industrial demand but limited surprise given the smaller-than-expected decline. Bond yields edged lower as investors weighed the implications for growth-sensitive sectors.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
January 2026: -1.4%
December 2025: 5.3%
November 2025: -2.2%
October 2025: 0.5%
September 2025: 2.9%
August 2025: -2.8%
Trend analysis
Durable goods orders have swung sharply over the past six months, with three negative and three positive prints. The 12-month average sits at approximately 1.1%, underscoring the sector’s volatility.
Market lens
Investors remain cautious, as the latest decline follows December’s outsized gain. The alternating pattern complicates forecasts for industrial production and capital spending.
Chart Dynamics
January’s -1.4% print reversed December’s 5.3% surge, falling short of the 12-month average of 1.1%. The latest figure marks the fourth negative reading in the past seven months, highlighting persistent volatility.
Compared to November’s -2.2% and September’s 2.9%, the current pullback is less severe than some recent declines but underscores the sector’s uneven recovery. The estimate for January was -3.4%, so the actual result was less negative than anticipated.
Durable Goods Orders MoM trend, February 2025 – January 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: Durable goods orders remain highly volatile, with large swings in both directions over the past year. The January pullback, while notable, is less severe than some recent drops. The sector’s uneven momentum signals ongoing uncertainty for manufacturers and investors.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish (20%): Orders rebound above 2% in coming months if supply chains stabilize and business investment strengthens.
Base case (60%): Orders fluctuate near zero, with continued month-to-month volatility as firms adjust to demand shifts.
Bearish (20%): Orders remain negative or deteriorate further if global growth slows or financing conditions tighten.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include easing input costs and improved global demand. Downside risks stem from persistent supply bottlenecks and weaker capital expenditure. The data source is the US Census Bureau, with methodology based on seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods[1].
Market lens
Bond markets have responded with a modest rally, reflecting a tilt toward defensive positioning amid growth concerns. Equity investors are watching for confirmation in upcoming industrial production and ISM reports.
Closing Thoughts
Key signals
January’s -1.4% drop was less severe than forecast, but volatility remains high.
Recent swings complicate outlooks for manufacturing and capital goods sectors.
Markets are reacting cautiously, awaiting further clarity from upcoming data releases.
Market lens
Traders are recalibrating risk exposures, with defensive sectors seeing inflows and cyclical names under pressure. Durable goods orders will remain a closely watched barometer for US economic momentum in early 2026.
Key Markets Reacting to Durable Goods Orders MoM
Durable goods orders data often triggers immediate responses across equities, currencies, and digital assets. The January 2026 release, showing a 1.4% decline, has prompted investors to reassess exposure to US industrials, the dollar, and risk-sensitive assets. Below are select symbols from verified Sigmanomics listings, each with a brief note on their typical correlation or reaction to this indicator.
AAPL — Apple’s supply chain and capital spending plans can be sensitive to swings in durable goods orders, especially during periods of sector volatility.
EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair often reacts to US manufacturing data, with weaker orders sometimes weighing on the greenback.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s price can move in response to macroeconomic releases, as risk sentiment shifts following major US data prints.
Durable Goods Orders MoM vs. AAPL since 2020
Year
Durable Goods Orders MoM Avg.
AAPL YoY Return
2020
-3.7%
82%
2021
1.9%
34%
2022
0.7%
-26%
2023
1.3%
48%
2024
0.9%
12%
2025
1.1%
9%
Periods of strong durable goods growth have often coincided with above-average returns for AAPL, though the relationship is influenced by broader market and sector trends.
FAQ
What does the January 2026 US Durable Goods Orders MoM report show?
It shows a 1.4% month-over-month decline in new orders for durable goods, reversing December’s 5.3% gain.
Why is the Durable Goods Orders MoM figure important?
It provides a timely gauge of manufacturing sector momentum and business investment trends in the US economy.
How does the Durable Goods Orders MoM impact markets?
Markets often react to large swings in this indicator, with equities, bonds, and currencies adjusting to perceived changes in economic momentum.
Durable goods orders remain a key barometer for US manufacturing volatility and investor sentiment.
Updated 2/18/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
US Census Bureau, Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, January 2026 release.
Economic Calendar - US Events
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
3.65
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-0.82
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
1.61
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-4.75
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.43
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.18
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.08
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.70
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
52.02
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.73
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.40
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
53.23
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.92
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
4.50
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.20
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.80
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.23
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-4.50
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
70.75
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
59.75
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.48
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.30
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
3.00
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.18
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.20
High
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
39
38
38
38.50
Medium
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
-3.9
18.7
10
3.05
High
Friday, December 12, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
414
413
415
415.67
Low
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-177
-12
-165
-167.67
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
-
2.9
2.9
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
236
192
220
216.33
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1838
1937
1950
1925.33
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
214.75
218
215.88
High
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-52.8
-59.3
-63.3
-60.32
Medium
13:30
US
Exports
289.3
280.9
281
283.77
Medium
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-173
-284
-205
-212.25
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-173
-284
-186.5
-198.28
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.812
0.574
-2.3
-2.02
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.502
2.059
1.9
2.31
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
6.397
4.518
2.8
4.35
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost Index QoQ
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.85
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.70
Medium
Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-4.8
-2.48
-1.7
-4.25
Medium
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.128
3.091
3.15
3.14
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.658
7.227
7.2
7.43
High
15:00
US
Leading Index MoM
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.30
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99
98.2
98.4
98.70
Low
Monday, December 8, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.15
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
Friday, December 5, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
9.18
11.01
10.5
9.84
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
9.18
11.01
11.8
10.49
Medium
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
413
407
409
409.67
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.8
3.8
3.73
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.8
3.8
3.73
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
51
51.2
52.65
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
53.3
51
52
52.45
High
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.28
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.22
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.7
51.1
51.3
50.85
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.30
Medium
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Income MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.35
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.30
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.85
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, December 4, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-12
-11
-18
-20.67
Low
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
0.2
1.3
0.5
0.42
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
191
218
220
216.33
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
214.75
224.25
225
222.88
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1939
1943
1960
1935.33
High
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
71.321
153.074
98
84.66
Low
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:10
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.059
1.147
0.7
1.11
Low
16:10
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.518
2.513
1.5
3.05
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.059
1.147
0.7
1.11
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.574
2.774
-0.8
-0.52
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.518
2.513
1.5
3.05
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
48.9
48.2
48
48.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
52.6
52.4
52.1
52.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
52.9
56.2
56.4
54.65
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
65.4
70
70.3
67.85
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
54.5
54.3
54.5
54.50
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
65.4
70
68
66.70
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
52.6
52.4
52
52.30
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
54.1
54.8
55
54.73
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
54.2
54.6
54.8
54.60
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
1.6
0.84
1.6
1.60
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
75.9
77.3
76.60
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.10
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.5
1
1.3
1.40
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
3.8
3.2
4.1
3.95
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.45
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
-32
47
10
-11.00
High
Tuesday, December 2, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
15.6
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
15.6
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.9
43.9
44.1
46.00
Low
15:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
-
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
Monday, December 1, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58
59.5
59.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
48.2
48.7
48.6
48.40
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.4
49.4
49.7
48.55
Low
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44
46
47
45.50
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.2
52.5
51.9
51.92
High
Thursday, November 27, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
Low
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.9
4
4
3.93
Medium
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-11
-14
-1
-3.67
Low
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
4
4
3.93
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.147
0.171
0.6
1.01
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.513
2.327
0.7
2.25
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
2.774
-3.426
-0.5
-0.22
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Income MoM
-
0.4
0.4
0.45
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
-
0.2
1
1.00
Medium
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
0.1
1.9
1.9
1.00
High
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
-
2.5
2.2
2.20
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.1
2.3
2.30
Low
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
0.5
3
0.3
0.40
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
216
222
225
221.33
High
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-
3.8
1
1.00
High
13:30
US
PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
13:30
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
-
2.1
2.5
2.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1960
1953
1975
1950.33
High
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.2
0.20
High
13:30
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0
-0.2
-0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
223.75
224.75
225
222.88
High
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
-
7.5
7.4
7.40
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.6
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.9
0.9
0.1
0.50
Low
13:30
US
Building Permits
-
1.33
1.34
1.34
High
Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:30
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-284
198
-223
-230.25
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-284
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-2.3
-9.4
-6
-4.15
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
-2.5
-6.4
-3
-2.75
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-4
4
5
0.50
Low
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
1.9
0.1
0.5
1.20
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-14
4
6
-4.00
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-15
-4
-2
-8.50
Low
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-0.4
-0.9
-2.4
-1.40
Medium
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
88.7
95.5
93.4
91.05
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0.1
0.3
0.17
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
77.4
77.3
76.60
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0
0.4
0.3
0.15
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.40
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
435.4
435.6
436.6
436.00
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
2.4
1.5
1.60
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.5
-0.6
-0.4
-0.45
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.65
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.30
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.80
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.15
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index
149.779
149.316
149.4
149.59
Low
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
4.3
5
3.9
4.20
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.38
High
Monday, November 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.4
-5
-1
-5.70
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
77.4
77.3
76.60
Low
13:30
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
-
-0.12
-0.4
-0.40
Medium
Friday, November 21, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
419
417
418
418.67
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
51.1
58.6
52.3
51.85
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
51
53.6
50.5
50.95
High
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.53
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
51
50.3
49
50.45
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.58
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.50
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0
0.1
-0.2
-0.05
Low
15:00
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
55
54.8
54
54.23
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
55
54.8
54.6
54.33
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.9
52.5
52
51.92
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
54.8
54.6
53.8
54.00
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.9
52.5
51.9
51.92
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
54.8
54.6
54.5
54.30
Medium
13:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
18
15
12
15.00
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
8
6
4
6.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-14
45
-12
-14.67
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
1.2
1.3
0.9
1.05
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.1
4.05
4.08
4.09
High
15:00
US
Leading Index MoM
-
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
15:00
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
234.75
237.75
239
236.88
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1946
1964
1967
1942.33
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-1.7
-12.8
-3.1
-2.40
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.38
High
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8
8.1
8.1
8.05
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
97
18
62
76.75
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.3
62.3
62.35
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
119
-4
50
70.75
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-6
-15
-8
-7.50
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
22
-22
-10
-2.50
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.20
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.70
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.23
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
12:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
235
224
227
223.33
High
12:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1929
1921
1930
1905.33
High
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.3
-235.08
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.327
-0.945
-0.2
1.35
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.426
6.413
-0.6
-0.32
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.171
-0.637
-1.2
-0.79
Low
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4.2
4
4
3.93
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-
-8.5
1
1.00
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-59.6
-78.2
-61
-58.02
Medium
13:30
US
Imports
340.4
358.8
341
340.70
Medium
13:30
US
Exports
280.8
280.6
278
280.77
Medium
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-
198
50
42.75
Medium
18:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-
198
50
42.75
Medium
18:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.3
-235.08
Medium
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
38
37
37
37.50
Medium
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-
0.6
-0.5
-0.45
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
1.4
-1.3
1.4
1.32
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
0.9
1.6
1.60
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0.3
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
-
0.3
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-215.3
-227.08
Medium
10:00
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1947
1916
1930
1905.33
High
10:00
US
Initial Jobless Claims
232
219
223
219.33
High
10:00
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
58
237.75
247
244.88
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US Durable Goods Orders Decline in January 2026 Report Durable goods orders measure new purchase requests for long-lasting manufactured products in the US economy. In January 2026, orders fell by 1.40%, improving on the expected 3.40% drop and reversing December’s 5.30% increase. The latest data reflect ongoing swings in industrial demand amid supply chain adjustments and cautious business investment. Transportation and machinery sectors were the main contributors to the decline, signaling uneven momentum in manufacturing. Despite the setback, the smaller-than-anticipated drop suggests some resilience in capital spending. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted, “The January pullback highlights volatility but does not yet signal a broad manufacturing slowdown.” As the Federal Reserve continues to monitor economic indicators closely, durable goods orders remain a key gauge of industrial health and future growth prospects.
January’s -1.4% print reversed December’s 5.3% surge, falling short of the 12-month average of 1.1%. The latest figure marks the fourth negative reading in the past seven months, highlighting persistent volatility.
Compared to November’s -2.2% and September’s 2.9%, the current pullback is less severe than some recent declines but underscores the sector’s uneven recovery. The estimate for January was -3.4%, so the actual result was less negative than anticipated.