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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders MoM climbed to 1.1% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Durable Goods Orders MoM climbed to 1.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.6% from June's 0.5% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.6%. Durable Goods Orders MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders MoM averaged -2.1%, vs 1.83% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 73rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.86 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.87
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders MoM (United States) was reported at 1.1% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.99%, ranging from -4.5% to 7.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1.03%, down from the prior three at 2.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.43%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.46%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders MoM has averaged 2.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.86%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting goods in a given month. This includes products such as appliances, machinery, and vehicles, which are expected to last for at least three years. As a leading indicator of economic activity, Durable Goods Orders MoM provides valuable insights into consumer and business spending patterns, and can impact financial markets and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (May 2026): -4.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |