Loading page content
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change fell to -7.17 in July 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased July 2026
US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change fell to -7.17 in July 2026, down 9.18 from June's 2.01 reading. The reading missed the -1.3 consensus by 5.87. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -3.16. Over the past 3 months, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change averaged -5.9, vs 2.75 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-7.167
Actual
-1.3
Consensus
2.011
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.54
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -2.74
Actual: -7.17
Error: +4.43
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (United States) was reported at -7.17 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.30 by 5.87. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.01. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.17, ranging from -9.29 to 15.99 across 42 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -7.55, down from the prior three at -6.39. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.61) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.89). In July readings over the past 3 years, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change has averaged -2.71.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.54.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - US
Loading chart data...
About EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms in the United States. This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it provides insight into the current supply and demand dynamics of the oil market. Fluctuations in crude oil stocks can have a significant impact on oil prices and can serve as an important indicator of the overall health of the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -7.167 M, consensus -1.3 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -8.262 M. Before that (Jun 2026): -7.228 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |