Loading page content
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change climbed to -0.39 in September 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased September 2026
US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change climbed to -0.39 in September 2026, up 4.06 from August's -4.45 reading. The print exceeded the -1.6 consensus by 1.21. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -2.18. Over the past 3 months, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change averaged 0.65, vs -1.28 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 53rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.391
Actual
-1.6
Consensus
-4.45
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.41
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.57
Actual: -0.39
Error: -0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (United States) was reported at -0.39 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.60 by 1.21. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.45. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17, ranging from -9.29 to 17.42 across 41 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.58, down from the prior three at 8.10. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.11) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.98). In September readings over the past 3 years, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change has averaged -1.61.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.41.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 11) and CPI s.a (Sep 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - US
Loading chart data...
About EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms in the United States. This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it provides insight into the current supply and demand dynamics of the oil market. Fluctuations in crude oil stocks can have a significant impact on oil prices and can serve as an important indicator of the overall health of the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.391 M, consensus -1.6 M. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -4.45 M. Before that (Aug 2026): 0.095 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.411 | 156.784 | 157 | 157.21 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.60 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1774 | 1775 | 1780 | 1777.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 207 | 205 | 205.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 206 | 207.5 | 206 | 206.00 | Low |
| 13:20 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.55 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 4.06 | 3.98 | 3.98 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -1.7 | -0.2 | -1.10 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 40 | 30 | 31 | 35.50 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.55 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 2.087 | 0.796 | -0.7 | 0.69 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.391 | -4.45 | -1.6 | -1.00 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.269 | -1.173 | -1.4 | -0.07 | Medium |
| Friday, September 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.9 | 51.3 | 52.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 51.5 | 50.5 | 53.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51.7 | 51 | 52.45 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4 | 3.9 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -432 | -480 | -480.00 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -432 | -404 | -404.00 | Medium | |
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.8999 | 3.90 | Low | |