Loading page content
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change climbed to -1.89M in October 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased October 2026
US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change climbed to -1.89M in October 2026, up 1.17M from September's -3.06M reading. The reading missed the 0M consensus by 1.89M. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change averaged 0.67M, vs -6.06M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 47th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.892
Actual
0
Consensus
-3.061
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.65 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: -1.89
Error: +2.54
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (United States) was reported at -1.89 million in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.00 million by 1.89 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.06 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.11 million, ranging from -9.01 million to 17.42 million across 42 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -4.50 million, down from the prior three at 0.24 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.02 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.04 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change has averaged -0.22 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.65 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - US
Loading chart data...
About EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms in the United States. This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it provides insight into the current supply and demand dynamics of the oil market. Fluctuations in crude oil stocks can have a significant impact on oil prices and can serve as an important indicator of the overall health of the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -1.892 M, consensus 0 M. Prior reading (Oct 2026): -3.061 M. Before that (Oct 2026): -8.557 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |