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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Gasoline Stocks Change fell to 0.01 in July 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased July 2026
US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change fell to 0.01 in July 2026, down 0.76 from June's 0.77 reading. The print exceeded the -0.7 consensus by 0.71. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -2.27. Over the past 3 months, EIA Gasoline Stocks Change averaged -1.15, vs -2.69 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.007
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
0.765
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.98
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.38
Actual: 0.01
Error: -0.39
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (United States) was reported at 0.01 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.70 by 0.71. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.77. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.04, ranging from -5.94 to 8.98 across 42 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.24, up from the prior three at -0.25. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.47) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.05). In July readings over the past 3 years, EIA Gasoline Stocks Change has averaged -1.38.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.98.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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EIA Gasoline Stocks Change - US
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About EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Gasoline Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of gasoline held in storage by commercial firms in the United States. This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it provides valuable insights into the current supply and demand dynamics of the gasoline market. A positive change in gasoline stocks indicates an increase in supply, while a negative change suggests a decrease in supply. This indicator is used to assess the overall health of the gasoline market and can impact prices and trading decisions in the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.007 M, consensus -0.7 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.906 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.186 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 35 | 34.50 | Low | |