Eia Gasoline Stocks Change - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
Latest Release
-3.654
Actual
-2.6
Consensus
-1.704
Previous
US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change fell by -3.65 million barrels in February 2026, marking the sharpest monthly draw since August 2023. This decline deepened from January’s -1.70 million barrels and reversed the build seen in December 2025. Energy equities and the US dollar reacted swiftly to the tightening supply ahead of the spring driving season. Updated 3/11/26
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Eia Gasoline Stocks Change - US
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Key Takeaways: US EIA Gasoline Stocks fell by 3.654 million barrels in February, the sharpest monthly draw since August 2023. The decline outpaced January’s 1.704 million barrel drop and reversed the build seen in December. Market reaction was swift, with energy equities and the US dollar both responding to tighter supply signals.
US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change: February Draw Deepens, Market Eyes Supply Tightness
The latest EIA data shows a significant contraction in US gasoline inventories for February 2026, intensifying concerns about supply as the driving season approaches. This report dissects the numbers, market response, and forward scenarios.
February’s gasoline stock draw of 3.654 million barrels stands well below the 12-month average monthly change of +2.06 million barrels[1]. The reading signals a tightening supply environment as the Federal Reserve maintains its focus on broader inflation metrics, not directly targeting fuel inventories.
Market lens
Energy sector stocks and the US dollar both saw immediate moves on the release. The sharp drawdown in gasoline stocks triggered a rally in integrated oil names and refiners, while the dollar index edged higher as traders priced in the risk of higher fuel costs feeding into inflation.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Gasoline stocks: -3.654M barrels (Feb 2026)
Prior month: -1.704M barrels (Jan 2026)
December 2025: +5.85M barrels
12-month average: +2.06M barrels
Largest recent build: +8.98M barrels (Jan 2026)
Largest recent draw: -3.654M barrels (Feb 2026)
Policy pulse
Gasoline inventories have now declined for two consecutive months, reversing the late-2025 build. The EIA’s methodology is based on weekly surveys of commercial storage, with figures subject to revision. The Federal Reserve does not set explicit targets for fuel stocks but monitors energy prices as a component of headline inflation.
Market lens
Traders interpreted the draw as a bullish signal for gasoline crack spreads. The move below the 12-month average has prompted some analysts to revise their near-term price targets for gasoline futures upward, citing persistent demand and lagging imports.
Chart Dynamics
February’s EIA Gasoline Stocks Change came in at -3.654 million barrels, compared to January’s -1.704 million and a 12-month average of +2.06 million barrels. This marks the steepest monthly draw since August 2023, and the second consecutive monthly decline after a series of builds in late 2025. The trend underscores a shift from surplus to deficit conditions in the gasoline market.
Recent history: December 2025 saw a build of 5.85 million barrels, followed by January’s 7.70 million and 8.98 million barrel builds, before the sharp reversal in February. The last time stocks fell by more than 3 million barrels in a month was August 2023.
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change trend, Dec 2025–Feb 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a pronounced shift from inventory accumulation to rapid drawdown. This directional change signals tightening supply, raising the risk of price volatility if demand remains robust or if refinery maintenance limits output in coming months.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish (30%): Continued draws as demand accelerates, pushing gasoline prices higher and supporting energy equities.
Base (55%): Inventories stabilize near current levels as refineries ramp up post-maintenance and imports recover.
Bearish (15%): Unexpected demand drop or supply surge leads to a return to inventory builds, capping price gains.
Policy pulse
While the Federal Reserve’s rate policy remains focused on core inflation, persistent gasoline stock draws could influence headline inflation readings in the coming months. The EIA will continue weekly reporting, with the next release scheduled for March 18, 2026.
Market lens
Gasoline futures volatility increased post-release. Market participants are watching for signals from refiners and importers, as well as any policy commentary on energy supply security.
Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
Refinery maintenance schedules
Seasonal demand uptick
Import flows
Market lens
Energy equities outperformed broad indices on the data. The persistent drawdown in gasoline stocks has sharpened focus on supply risks as the US heads into spring driving season.
Key Markets Reacting to EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
Movements in US gasoline inventories ripple across multiple asset classes. Energy stocks, the US dollar, and select commodity-linked equities all respond to shifts in supply-demand dynamics. Below are key tradable symbols with direct or indirect exposure to EIA gasoline stock data.
AAPL — Consumer demand proxy; higher fuel costs can affect discretionary spending and device sales.
USDJPY — Sensitive to US inflation readings; gasoline-driven CPI swings impact currency flows.
BTCUSD — Correlation with inflation hedges; energy price shocks can drive crypto volatility.
Year
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (M bbl)
AAPL % Move (monthly avg)
2020
+4.12
+7.3%
2021
-2.85
+2.1%
2022
+1.67
+5.8%
2023
-3.01
-1.4%
2024
+2.09
+4.6%
2025
+1.92
+3.2%
Since 2020, AAPL’s monthly performance has shown a mild inverse relationship with large gasoline stock draws, reflecting consumer sentiment and cost pressures.
FAQ
What is the latest US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change figure?
The most recent EIA data shows a draw of 3.654 million barrels for February 2026, the largest monthly decline since August 2023.
How does the February draw compare to previous months?
February’s draw of 3.654 million barrels is deeper than January’s 1.704 million barrel decline and reverses the build seen in December 2025.
Why does the EIA Gasoline Stocks Change matter for markets?
Changes in gasoline inventories influence energy prices, inflation readings, and equity and currency markets, especially as supply tightens or demand shifts.
US gasoline inventories posted their sharpest monthly draw in over two years, intensifying focus on supply risks ahead of peak demand season.
Updated 3/11/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly Petroleum Status Report, released 3/11/2026.
Sigmanomics database, accessed 3/11/2026.
Economic Calendar - US Events
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.3
5.3
5.73
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
-
3.3
1.4
2.55
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-
2.6
0.2
1.80
Medium
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
Friday, January 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
-
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
-
52.9
54
54.00
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
-
50.4
52.4
52.80
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
-
3.2
3.4
3.47
Low
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
37
39
40
38.50
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
-
54.6
55
55.10
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2
2.5
2.7
2.80
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
76.3
76
76
76.08
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
2
1.9
2
2.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.13
Medium
Thursday, January 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-71
-119
-90
-85.17
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
198
207
215
208.33
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0.4
0
-0.1
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.25
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1884
1903
1890
1883.17
High
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
7.7
-3.7
1
4.35
High
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
-
0
-0.1
-0.10
Medium
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
12.6
-8.8
-2
-1.65
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
205
211.5
215
212.58
High
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.1
5.1
5.53
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
-0.029
5.594
-0.2
0.86
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
3.391
-3.831
-2.2
-2.26
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
8.977
7.702
4
6.29
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
-
47.9
47.4
46.90
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.35
4.14
4.21
4.23
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
5.1
0.7
-1.6
1.40
High
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.23
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.05
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
3.4
3
2.9
3.15
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
3
2.9
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
-
2.6
2.7
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Current Account
-226.4
-249.2
-238.4
-232.40
Medium
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.45
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.3
3.3
3
3.27
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.63
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.25
High
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
5.27
-2.8
-2
-2.64
Medium
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-145
-173
-150
-147.50
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-145
-173
-144.5
-144.75
Medium
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:10
US
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
800
710
710.00
High
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.69
0.69
Medium
15:00
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.2
47.9
48.2
47.70
Low
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
High
13:30
US
CPI
324.05
324.12
323.8
323.61
High
13:30
US
CPI s.a
326.03
325.031
325.7
325.87
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.60
High
13:30
US
Building Permits
1.411
1.415
1.412
2.81
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99.5
99
99.5
99.50
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn
13.28
1.55
13.1
13.19
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat
1.68
2.13
1.65
1.67
Low
17:00
US
Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy
3.29
0.32
3.28
3.29
Low
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
5.4
5.4
5.83
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
54
52.9
53.5
53.50
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
52.4
50.4
50.5
50.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.17
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.23
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
54.6
54.2
54.30
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.32
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.63
Medium
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.60
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts
1.246
1.306
1.33
1.29
High
13:30
US
Housing Starts MoM
-4.6
1.2
0.8
-1.90
Medium
13:30
US
Building Permits
6.4
-2.3
0.8
2.20
Medium
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
13
6
-10
-4.75
Low
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.53
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-8
-2
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
37
50
64
63.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
50
56
60
61.00
High
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
4.23
9.24
10
7.12
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
4.23
9.24
10.1
7.17
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
5.4
2.7
2.7
3.13
Medium
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.30
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-119
-38
-114
-109.17
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.20
Low
13:30
US
Nonfarm Productivity QoQ
4.9
4.1
3
3.95
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
208
200
210
203.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1914
1858
1900
1893.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
211.75
219
210.75
208.33
High
13:30
US
Unit Labour Costs QoQ
-1.9
-2.9
1
-0.45
Medium
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-29.4
-48.1
-58.9
-44.15
Medium
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
10:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
35.553
71.321
89
62.28
Low
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
7.702
5.845
2.9
5.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-3.831
-1.934
1.1
1.04
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
5.594
4.977
2.2
3.26
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.146
7.449
7.6
7.37
High
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.25
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.161
2.973
2.99
3.08
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
54.4
52.6
52.2
53.30
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.6
55.25
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
-1.3
0.2
-1.2
-1.25
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
52
48.9
49
50.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
64.3
65.4
64.9
64.60
High
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
54.4
52.6
52.3
53.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
56
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
57.9
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
52
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
64.3
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.50
Low
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
41
-29
47
44.00
High
Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-2.8
1.7
1.2
0.56
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
52.7
54.2
53
52.70
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.5
54.1
52.9
52.52
Low
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
16
15.6
15.7
15.85
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
2.7
3
3
3.43
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
-
54.5
54
55.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
-
65.4
65.5
64.90
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
-
48.9
48.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
-
52.9
52.2
55.05
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
-
52.6
52
53.05
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44.9
44
44.1
44.50
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.7
47.4
47.2
47.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58.5
59
58.75
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.2
48.3
48.10
High
Friday, January 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
51.8
51.75
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
-
34.3
34.3
34.27
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
-
4.6
4.7
4.72
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
-
69
6
5.25
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
-
62.5
62.6
62.50
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-
-5
-10
-10.75
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-
-5
-6
-0.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
-
64
12
13.00
High
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-38
-166
-53
-48.17
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.934
0.405
-0.9
-0.96
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
5.845
2.862
1.9
4.19
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
4.977
0.202
2.2
3.26
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
-
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1866
1913
1915
1908.17
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
218.75
217
224.25
221.83
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
199
215
220
213.33
High
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
0.1
-2.5
-4
-1.95
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-3.3
-2.3
-2
-2.65
Low
14:45
US
Chicago PMI
43.5
36.3
39.5
41.50
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
1.8
0.9
1.30
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.20
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
436.7
435.2
435.8
436.25
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
Monday, December 29, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-166
-167
-168
-163.17
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.9
-10.4
-2.5
-6.70
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
0.202
1.712
0.4
1.46
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.862
4.808
1.1
3.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.405
-1.274
-2.4
-2.46
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
3.3
2.4
1
2.15
Medium
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
2.6
-0.4
-0.6
1.00
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0.5
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
217.5
219
216.58
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
214
224
223
216.33
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1923
1885
1900
1893.17
High
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-11
-14
-3
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
New Home Sales
-
0.8
0.71
0.71
High
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-6
-4
1
-2.50
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-7
-15
-7
-7.00
Low
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
89.1
92.9
91
90.05
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.1
0.9
1.15
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
-
1.5
1
1.25
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
2.2
1.9
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.4
0
-0.2
-0.15
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
-
1.6
1.1
1.20
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
76
75.9
75.98
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.13
Medium
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
-
0.1
-0.1
-0.07
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
75.9
77.2
77.28
Low
13:55
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.6
0.3
0.25
Low
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.20
Medium
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
2.8
2.1
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
4.4
0.2
1
2.70
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
4.6
7.5
7.4
6.00
Low
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
4.3
3.8
3.3
3.80
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
-1.5
0.1
-0.8
-1.15
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
0.2
0.7
0.3
0.25
High
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
-2.2
0.7
-1.5
-1.85
High
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.5
1.1
-0.1
0.20
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
54.6
51
55
55.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.28
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.13
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.13
4.11
4.2
4.22
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
0.5
1.5
-4.8
-1.80
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.4
51.1
50.7
51.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
52.9
51
53.4
53.40
High
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.23
Medium
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
US
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
17.5
173.2
122.7
70.10
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
1
8
6
3.50
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-3
18
11
4.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-167
-177
-169
-164.17
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1897
1830
1930
1923.17
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.2
-1.7
3
3.35
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
217.5
217
218.5
216.08
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
224
237
225
218.33
High
13:30
US
Current Account
-
-251.3
-250
-244.00
Medium
13:30
US
CPI
324.12
324.8
325.13
324.94
High
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3
3
2.88
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3
3.1
3.00
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
4.39
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-1.16
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
2.26
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-2.84
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.93
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.23
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.25
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.60
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
51.95
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.63
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.10
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
52.95
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.90
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.28
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
2.25
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.18
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.82
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.25
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-5.75
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
51.00
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
44.25
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.43
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.35
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
2.98
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.33
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.35
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US EIA Gasoline Stocks Fall Sharply in February Report The EIA Gasoline Stocks Change measures the weekly variation in gasoline inventories held by commercial storage facilities across the US. In February 2026, gasoline stocks decreased by 3.65 million barrels, a larger draw than January’s 1.70 million barrel decline, with the data released on March 11, 2026. This marks the steepest monthly reduction since August 2023 and signals tightening supply conditions as the spring driving season approaches. The sustained inventory draw has prompted market participants to reassess near-term gasoline price forecasts amid ongoing refinery maintenance and robust demand. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted, “The sharp inventory decline underscores supply constraints that could keep upward pressure on fuel prices in the coming months.” This development adds complexity to inflation dynamics, as energy prices remain a key factor in broader economic trends.
February’s EIA Gasoline Stocks Change came in at -3.654 million barrels, compared to January’s -1.704 million and a 12-month average of +2.06 million barrels. This marks the steepest monthly draw since August 2023, and the second consecutive monthly decline after a series of builds in late 2025. The trend underscores a shift from surplus to deficit conditions in the gasoline market.
Recent history: December 2025 saw a build of 5.85 million barrels, followed by January’s 7.70 million and 8.98 million barrel builds, before the sharp reversal in February. The last time stocks fell by more than 3 million barrels in a month was August 2023.