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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Gasoline Stocks Change climbed to 3.87M in October 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased October 2026
US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change climbed to 3.87M in October 2026, up 6.82M from September's -2.95M reading. The print exceeded the -0.9M consensus by 4.77M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.5M. Over the past 3 months, EIA Gasoline Stocks Change averaged -0.5M, vs -1.01M in the prior 3-month window. EIA Gasoline Stocks Change is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
3.87
Actual
-0.9
Consensus
-2.952
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.04 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.66
Actual: 3.87
Error: -4.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (United States) was reported at 3.87 million in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.90 million by 4.77 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.95 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.25 million, ranging from -5.94 million to 8.98 million across 42 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.48 million, up from the prior three at -1.00 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.43 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.99 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, EIA Gasoline Stocks Change has averaged -0.73 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.04 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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EIA Gasoline Stocks Change - US
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About EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Gasoline Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of gasoline held in storage by commercial firms in the United States. This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it provides valuable insights into the current supply and demand dynamics of the gasoline market. A positive change in gasoline stocks indicates an increase in supply, while a negative change suggests a decrease in supply. This indicator is used to assess the overall health of the gasoline market and can impact prices and trading decisions in the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.87 M, consensus -0.9 M. Prior reading (Oct 2026): -2.952 M. Before that (Oct 2026): 3.518 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |