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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Fed Interest Rate Decision held to 3.75% in July 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Fed Interest Rate Decision held to 3.75% in July 2026. The reading matched the 3.75% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.13%. Fed Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 45 months.
Latest Release
3.75
Actual
3.75
Consensus
3.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.75
Actual: 3.75
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fed Interest Rate Decision (United States) was reported at 3.75% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.75% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.94%, ranging from 3.75% to 4.5% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.75%, down from the prior three at 3.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.34%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Fed Interest Rate Decision has averaged 4.58%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Fed Interest Rate Decision - US
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About Fed Interest Rate Decision — United States
DEFINITION
The Fed Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to raise, lower, or maintain interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects borrowing costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. Investors closely monitor this indicator as it can provide insights into the future direction of the economy and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.75 %, consensus 3.75 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.75 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.75 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |