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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS GDP Price Index QoQ fell to 3.5% in Q1 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisQuarterlyReleased May 2026
US GDP Price Index QoQ fell to 3.5% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 0.1% from December's 3.6% reading. The reading missed the 4.5% consensus by 1.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.25%. Over the past 3 months, GDP Price Index QoQ averaged 4.0%, vs 3.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
4.5
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 4.55
Actual: 3.5
Error: +1.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Price Index QoQ (United States) was reported at 3.5% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.5% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.08%, ranging from 2% to 3.8% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.67%, up from the prior three at 2.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.81%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.62%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Price Index QoQ has averaged 3.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Price Index QoQ - US
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About GDP Price Index QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
The GDP Price Index QoQ is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall prices of goods and services produced within a country over a specific quarter. It provides valuable insights into the inflationary pressures within an economy and is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to assess the health and stability of a country's economy. A positive change in the GDP Price Index QoQ indicates an increase in prices, while a negative change suggests a decrease in prices. This indicator is an important tool for understanding the current and future economic trends and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.6 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 4.5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.57) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.