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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Industrial Production YoY fell to 1.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Industrial Production YoY fell to 1.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.19% from June's 1.29% reading. The print exceeded the 1.0% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.45%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 1.4%, vs 1.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
1
Consensus
1.29
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.85
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (United States) was reported at 1.1% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.29%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.57%, ranging from 0.9% to 2.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.3%, down from the prior three at 1.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.17%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 0.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - US
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About Industrial Production YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |